The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price

 

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through September 2018 with Forecasts from October 2018 including live maps.

CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a thirty-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. Check out the site below for a Full report

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends

September 2018 National Home Prices

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.6 percent in September 2018 compared with September 2017 and increased month over month by 0.4 percent in September 2018 compared with August 2018 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

 

Forecast Prices Nationally

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2018 to September 2019, and on month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease slightly by 0.6 from September 2018 to October 2018.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

In 2018, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive consumer housing sentiment study, combining consumer and property insights. The study assessed attitudes toward homeownership and the drivers of the home buying or renting decision process. When asked about the desire to own a home, potential buyers in the younger millennial demographic have the desire to buy, 40 percent are extremely or very interested in homeownership. In fact, 64 percent say they regularly monitor home values in their local market. However, while, 80 percent of younger millennials plan to move in the next four or five years, 73 percent cite as a barrier to homeownership (far higher than any other age cohort).

House Buyers are gaining the most power in Orlando

By   – Editor, Business Journal

After years of competitive house bidding wars and rising prices, a new data analysis from Zillow shows it might finally be a good time to buy a home in many U.S. markets — especially in Orlando.

Zillow researchers looked at three factors to determine which of the largest housing markets are becoming more buyer-friendly: an increase in the share f listings with a price cut; projected increase in rent appreciation over the next year; and relative to the past.

Based on those factors, the best places for buyers this winter include:

  1. Orlando
  2. Boston
  3. Seattle
  4. Las Vegas
  5. Charlotte
  6. Columbus
  7. Portland
  8. Sacramento
  9. Minneapolis
  10. Dallas

Here in Orlando, there are 6.8 percent more listings with a price cut compared to last year, rent is projected to increase 1.4 percent in the next year, and it costs about 20.2 percent of the monthly median income to pay the mortgage on the typical home.

Zumper National Rent Report: November 2018

As we approach the slow moving season, many of the 100 cities on our report have started to experience downward monthly rent trends. However, a lot of the mid to lower tiered markets are still continuing to play catch up with the most expensive cities with large year over year rental growth rates even into these cooler months. In the top markets, the most expensive 10 cities remained the same last month, though there was some shifting at the bottom with San Diego moving up to become tied with Santa Ana and Seattle dropping to 10th. Meanwhile, the city with the fastest growing rent last month was Spokane, up 5.6%, and the rental market that took the biggest rent dip was San Antonio, down 5.4%.

Overall, both the national one and two bedroom rents grew 0.7% last month, settling at $1,203 and $1,432, respectively. On a year over year level, one bedroom rent is up 2.3%, while two bedrooms have increased 2.9%.

The Zumper National Rent Report analyses rental data from over 1 million active listings across the United States. Data is aggregated on a monthly basis to calculate median asking for the top 100 metro areas by population, providing a comprehensive view of the current state of the market. The report is based on all data available in the month prior to publication.

If you’re interested in a more in-depth explanation of how and why we calculate our rent data, view our methodology post.

To keep up to date with rent changes across the country, like or follow Zumper on FacebookTwitter, and Instagram. In the market for a new place? Search apartments for rent on Zumper.

Latest figures on Housing outlook and Economy

Housing policy experts and community activists have long been concerned about access to mortgage credit in underserved neighborhoods. Insufficient access to credit, attributable to outdated underwriting
guidelines or a legacy of discrimination can hinder housing wealth creation and economic development.
For many years, the federal government’s collection of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data has provided one benchmark of whether advances are being made in providing credit to these communities.
Disadvantages with this loan-level data set are the long lag before their release and the public availability of only calendar year data rather than higher frequency, such as monthly. While descriptions of what constitutes an underserved area may vary, one metric is the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA)
definitions of both low-income and minority census tracts.1 The Agency uses these to assess the affordable housing performance of the government-sponsored enterprises it regulates. We compared the annual trend in the HMDA data with what we have in CoreLogic’s public records, and then used
CoreLogic data to update the trend through July 2018. (Figure 1) What we found was that CoreLogic’s public records tracked very closely with the trends in the HMDA data.2 Further, the share of home purchase mortgage lending in low-income areas or moderate-income minority census tracts has increased steadily from the low point in 2012 and 2013. For 2018 through July, this share was the highest since 2010. The increase in 2018 occurred even though the FHA share of purchase-mortgage lending is less than it was one year ago. FHA-insured loans tend to have a higher share of low income
and high-minority census tract lending than conventional. (Figure 2) But the share of conventional loans made in low-income and minority areas has steadily grown over the last six years, in part because
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun to fund conventional loans with three-percent down payment and up to 50-percent debt-to-income ratios. We will continue to monitor these trends with our public records data. Further increases in the share of loans made in underserved neighborhoods are likely as their local economies improve in the coming year.

New office space slated for Lake Nona Town Center

By Jack Witthaus  – Staff Writer, Journal

The Orlando-based developer, Tavistock Development Co. is planning for a new 120,000-square-foot office building in the Lake Nona Town Center. It’s the third office project in the $780 million, 3.8 million-square-foot, mixed-use town center that is developing in partnership with Columbus, Ohio-based Steiner + Associates.

is expected to begin before the end of the year.

“Leasing for the building is going very well,” Senior Sales and Leasing Associate Ginger Vetter said in a statement about the second building, which has yet to open. “We expect to announce another regional headquarters and other tenants soon. With the momentum from this building, we’re moving forward with another new, Class A office building.”

The third building’s general contractor is Barton Malow Co., and the architect is a partnership between Gensler and HuntonBrady Architects. Tavistock spokesperson Karlee Kunkle declined to say whether or not a tenant had been signed for the third building or what percentage of the second building has been leased.

The third building’s revelation comes after the second building — an estimated $20 million, Class A 155,000-square-foot, six-story office building at the southwest corner of Veteran’s Way and Boulevard — topped out in March. The second building, called Town Center Office II, is part of the town center’s $300 million Phase 2A. The building was slated to be completed by the end of this year.

So far, BBA Aviation Plc., parent company to Signature Flight Support in Orlando, has signed a 65,000-square-foot lease inside Town Center Office II.

It’s no surprise that there’s interest in the airport/Lake Nona office submarket as average Class A office rents are $30.18 per square foot — the highest in Central and ahead of Orlando’s average of $25.93 per square foot, Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) reported. Part of the demand for office space might have to do with Lake Nona’s growing Medical City, which could be spurring other businesses to relocate to the area to serve that new employment base, said Nicole Barry, vice president and director of operations at Tower Realty Partners Inc.

Meanwhile, construction continues on the second phase of Lake Nona Town CenterOrlando Business Journal previously learned about three dozen major retailers — from American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) to Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) — are lining up for a spot inside the town center. Tavistock wouldn’t confirm any of the potential retailers as tenants, but the company recently announced that Dallas-based cinema Cinepolis USA will open a nine-screen, 40,000-square-foot cinema in 2020 in the town center.

The fast-growing community in southeast Orlando boasts more than 11,000 residents, 5,000 employees and 14,000-plus students at its schools.

Opportunity Zones but great Investment Yes!

It’s not quite lottery level buzz, but talk of the tax rewards and potential of Opportunity Zones has tax lawyers, developers, municipalities and business development pros clamoring for answers and angles.

Still, in its early stages, U.S. governors helped the Internal Revenue Service and U.S. Treasury define eligible census tracts as official zones in May and June. Initial draft regulations about the program provided a fair amount of broad specifics — until late on Oct. 19. That’s when the IRS delivered hotly anticipated detailed rules on Opportunity Zones in a 74-page report reflecting a long period of public comment.

Here’s why Opportunity Zones are getting a lot of attention.

If you have capital gains, the new bipartisan supported provision found in 2017’s tax reform means an individual or institution can park those capital gains into what is known as a Qualified Opportunity Fund. That fund is used only to create investment within the designated census tracts or group of tracts.

Notable Orlando zones include Carver Shores, Washington Shores, Rosemont, Mercy Drive, the Packing District (west of Orange Blossom Trail), West Colonial Drive, East Colonial Drive (GOAA properties), Parramore (south of Church Street), the SoDo area (west of Orange Avenue) and the northeast corner of Semoran Boulevard and Curry Ford Road.

If you leave those deferred gains in a fund for seven to 10 years, then you don’t pay the capital gains for that period. While real estate is the sweet spot, the program was initially developed as a job creator — so it also applies to gains on sales of businesses, too.

“Those gains are deferred, but on top of that, anything you earn in the Opportunity Zone is tax free,” said Mike Miedel, director at Pinellas Economic Development. “It’s a tremendous opportunity for people.”

Buchanan’s Opportunity Zone practice team of Lisa Starczewski and Bill Conaboy has been on a whirlwind tour, the lawyers said, reacting to high interest from clients of all types.

The new details Friday were heavily anticipated, Starczewski said, and it’s going to take some time digest and understand. “There are still a number of open questions,” she said. But in one big move, the government extended the period over which an investor can take advantage of the program’s 10-year gain exclusion to as late as the end of 2047.

“They also answered some simpler questions like, can a Qualified Opportunity Fund be an LLC?” Starczewski said. “Yes, they can, and that was the right answer; and while it was just a clarification, it was nice to know so people didn’t feel like they had to create a limited partnership or corporation.”

Ahead of the Friday regs, PCED’s Miedel said it remained unclear how much people can use the funds for housing or hotels. “I think we are pretty safe with our target industries. The problem is how much of that investment will get sucked away from our types of projects into other things that would be secondary industries.”

Starczewski’s bottom-line takeaway: The program continues to be pro-taxpayer.

“As a practitioner, I think it is helpful guidance and I think it is designed to be facilitative,” she told OBJ sister paper the Tampa Bay Business Journal on Saturday. “I am happy to see that because it gives me a platform where I can say to clients, the IRS and Treasury are trying to help make these transactions work.”

With some level of confidence, Opportunity Zone subject matter experts can now have an easier time predicting what the feds will do in the next set of regulations based on the approach they took in the first one.

Tavistock buys 1,000-plus acres airport land

is expanding its boundaries south of and it now owns the land it needs.

Lake Nona developer Tavistock Development Co. LLC’s related entity TDCP LLC spent $63.9 million, or roughly $55,700 per acre, on May 10 for nearly 1,147 acres south of Orlando International Airport from the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority and the city of Orlando, Orange County records showed.

The three different parcels, two in Orange County and one in Osceola County along Narcoossee and Boggy Creek roads, will be used by  to develop a portion of a mixed-use project west of Narcoossee Road, north and east of Boggy Creek Road near the Orlando VA Medical Center, Tavistock spokeswoman Jessi Blakley told Orlando Journal.

The project, known as the Poitras planned development, includes:

  • 2,973
  • 100,000 square feet of commercial use
  • A school on 25 acres

Tavistock previously sought approval from the city earlier this month to rezone the property as a planned development with aircraft noise.

The 11,000-acre Lake Nona already has billions of dollars worth of underway and there’s even more growth ahead.

Supply of Homes For Sale Up Year Over Year in July 2018

Nation’s Months’ Supply of Homes For Sale Up Year Over Year in July 2018

SAN FRANCISCO METRO AREA HAD THE LOWEST MONTHS’ SUPPLY IN JULY

BY SHU CHEN HOUSING , REAL ESTATE


U.S. home prices have risen year-over-year by more than 6 percent since August 2017, fueled by strong demand and a lack of supply in many markets. However, due to rising mortgage interest rates and slowing sales nationally, the number of increased slightly to a 3.2 months’ supply[1] in July 2018, up from 3.1 months in July 2017.

Months Supply By Price Tier

Figure 1 breaks out the months’ supply into four price tiers: low price (0-75 percent of median list price), low to middle price (75-100 percent of median list price), middle to moderate price (100-125 percent of median list price) and high price (125 percent or more of median list price). Usually, the high price tier has the largest months’ supply and the low to middle price tier has the lowest months’ supply. The differences in the months’ supply among the four price tiers were greatest during the 2007-2009 crisis period when the high-price tier peaked at 20.2 months and the other tiers remained less than 15 months.

Here’s how each price tier’s months’ supply in July 2018 compares with its recent history:

  • The low-price tier had a 3.2-month supply, which was down 0.2 months from July 2017, and was less than a quarter of its peak at January 2008.
  • The low- to middle-price tier had a 2.5-month supply, down 0.1 months from July 2017. The July supply was about 18 percent of its January 2009 peak.
  • The middle- to moderate-price tier had a 2.7-month supply, up 0.2 months from July 2017. The July supply was also about 18 percent of its January 2009 peak.
  • The high-price tier had a 4-month supply, down 0.2 months from July 2017. The July supply was 20 percent of its January 2009 peak.

Sold in 30 Days

With demand strong and supply tight, many homes don’t spend long on the market in 2018. Figure 2 shows that over the past four years the share of homes selling within 30 days of the initial list date[2] has been at historical highs. In July 2018, the share selling within 30 days was 25.4 percent, which was almost double the pre-crisis peak in 2005 and more than triple the level during the February 2008 trough. Figure 3 shows the share of the for-sale inventory that was on the market for more than 180 days. In July 2018, that share was 19.9 percent, about 2.2 percentage points lower than the average in 2017 and half of the peak in March 2009.

Inventory on Market 180 Days

Figure 4 shows the months’ supplies in the U.S. (based on data for 65 CBSAs) and selected CBSAs in July 2018 and July 2017. The months’ supply in West Palm Beach and Honolulu increased 1.2 and 1.9 months, respectively, in July 2018 compared to a year earlier. San Francisco and Seattle had the lowest months’ supplies in July 2018: 2.0 months and 2.4 months, respectively.  Philadelphia showed the largest decline – 0.9 months – in July 2018 compared with a year earlier.

US and CBSA Month Supply

[1] The month’s supply is calculated as the ratio of the for-sale inventory at the end of the month to the number of homes sold during the same month and represents the number of months it would take to sell the inventory at that month’s sales pace. The U.S. statistics are based on data for 65 CBSAs.  To determine the price tier, the median list price was the median of homes listed in the 65 CBSAs for the given month.

Nursing most dangerous job in America? It ain’t what you’d expect?

 

There’s a headline that might surprise: Working in state-run and residential care facilities were riskier than being a police officer or a firefighter in 2016.

Since 2012, nurses and health aides in state-run residential care and nursing settings have accounted for the highest rates of injury and illnesses tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industry reported 164,300 employee injuries and illnesses in 2016 and racked up an incident rate that was roughly 30 percent higher than what was recorded by emergency workers in the nation’s police and fire departments.

once considered the most dangerous in the country still pose deadly risks to workers – landscaping, roofing and highway construction reported more worker deaths than any other industry over the past 21 months, according to federal data. However, the documented dangers posed by nursing and other service-related fields highlight ongoing shifts in how Americans earn a living, and experts say will continue as more and more traditional blue-collar jobs are automated or made obsolete altogether.

Deborah Berkowitz, program director of worker safety and health at the National Employment Law Project, said the high injury and illness rates in nursing are indicative of the physicality and strains of the job. She said back injuries in particular are a problem.

“Not only are they lifting patients out of the bed, but they’re repositioning them, they’re trying to prevent patients from falling,” said Berkowitz, whose nonprofit advocates for low-wage workers. She previously served as chief of staff for the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration from 2009 to 2015.

inside Orlando’s first Earth Fare market in Lake Nona

 

 

will be getting the first of what could be many of organic grocery chain Earth Fare’s greater locations.

The Fletcher, N.C.-based company opened its 24,000-square-foot store at 13204 Narcoossee Road on Sept. 29 as the anchor to the $10.5 million Shoppes at Nona Place facility. The store features the same styling as many other Earth Fare stores, but there is a local feel for the residents of Lake Nona, according to Earth Fare CEO Frank Scorpiniti.

“What is not prototype is how we join each community, some of the refinement we do and the assortment of local products we have on the shelf,” Scorpiniti told Orlando Journal.“While the furniture is pretty darn similar, the people and local product assortment will be very focused for each store we open.”

The location at the Shoppes at Nona Place is among an increase of development in the area, including a 7,000-square-foot store for Sunrise-based Pet Supermarket Inc. The shopping center, developed by Palm Beach Gardens-based Blackfin Partners and Canadian firm North American Development Group, still is looking for other tenants. Interested parties can go here for more information.

Why develop in Lake Nona? We have a store we developed in Lakewood Ranch with (Development Co.), and of course, we toured many of its developments. We came to Lake Nona having known that, and we were incredibly inspired by the health and wellness focus of this particular community. We had become aware of this potential two-and-a-half year ago and understood the growth that was going to occur in this community with the young families, with moms and dads focused on health. What we offer was kind of missing here, and what we could do fills a need that has yet been addressed.

What has it been like getting more involved in the community? We have been here as a management team many times, but one of the ways our company becomes familiar with the community is we ask people to serve on community advisory boards and have met with our teams on more than four occasions to help us understand the community. That started 90 days ago, and we really appreciate what they do to tell us what the community needs, what we can do to be a better neighbor — and that’s put into the building blocks of this particular store.

What does it mean to stick to an organic food philosophy compared to other chains? It makes us very proud our focus is on health and wellness. We know if we do this right, the sales and growth of our company will come. Rather than being focused on selling everything, we’re focused on making sure we don’t sell what we perceive to be bad for health. I think that’s a very special position in retail — we have a higher purpose than filling a grocery buggy. Our purpose is filling it with longevity, health, and happiness.

What are the next expansion steps for the area? Our next store in the area will be by Orlando Health on the corner of Orange Avenue and Gore Street. That will open later this year and we are very excited. That will be No. 2 of probably eight to 10 stores we are looking at in the Orlando area currently. Many of these are still under negotiation.