Supply of Homes For Sale Up Year Over Year in July 2018

Nation’s Months’ Supply of Homes For Sale Up Year Over Year in July 2018

SAN FRANCISCO METRO AREA HAD THE LOWEST MONTHS’ SUPPLY IN JULY

BY SHU CHEN HOUSING , REAL ESTATE


U.S. home prices have risen year-over-year by more than 6 percent since August 2017, fueled by strong demand and a lack of supply in many markets. However, due to rising mortgage interest rates and slowing sales nationally, the number of increased slightly to a 3.2 months’ supply[1] in July 2018, up from 3.1 months in July 2017.

Months Supply By Price Tier

Figure 1 breaks out the months’ supply into four price tiers: low price (0-75 percent of median list price), low to middle price (75-100 percent of median list price), middle to moderate price (100-125 percent of median list price) and high price (125 percent or more of median list price). Usually, the high price tier has the largest months’ supply and the low to middle price tier has the lowest months’ supply. The differences in the months’ supply among the four price tiers were greatest during the 2007-2009 crisis period when the high-price tier peaked at 20.2 months and the other tiers remained less than 15 months.

Here’s how each price tier’s months’ supply in July 2018 compares with its recent history:

  • The low-price tier had a 3.2-month supply, which was down 0.2 months from July 2017, and was less than a quarter of its peak at January 2008.
  • The low- to middle-price tier had a 2.5-month supply, down 0.1 months from July 2017. The July supply was about 18 percent of its January 2009 peak.
  • The middle- to moderate-price tier had a 2.7-month supply, up 0.2 months from July 2017. The July supply was also about 18 percent of its January 2009 peak.
  • The high-price tier had a 4-month supply, down 0.2 months from July 2017. The July supply was 20 percent of its January 2009 peak.

Sold in 30 Days

With demand strong and supply tight, many homes don’t spend long on the market in 2018. Figure 2 shows that over the past four years the share of homes selling within 30 days of the initial list date[2] has been at historical highs. In July 2018, the share selling within 30 days was 25.4 percent, which was almost double the pre-crisis peak in 2005 and more than triple the level during the February 2008 trough. Figure 3 shows the share of the for-sale inventory that was on the market for more than 180 days. In July 2018, that share was 19.9 percent, about 2.2 percentage points lower than the average in 2017 and half of the peak in March 2009.

Inventory on Market 180 Days

Figure 4 shows the months’ supplies in the U.S. (based on data for 65 CBSAs) and selected CBSAs in July 2018 and July 2017. The months’ supply in West Palm Beach and Honolulu increased 1.2 and 1.9 months, respectively, in July 2018 compared to a year earlier. San Francisco and Seattle had the lowest months’ supplies in July 2018: 2.0 months and 2.4 months, respectively.  Philadelphia showed the largest decline – 0.9 months – in July 2018 compared with a year earlier.

US and CBSA Month Supply

[1] The month’s supply is calculated as the ratio of the for-sale inventory at the end of the month to the number of homes sold during the same month and represents the number of months it would take to sell the inventory at that month’s sales pace. The U.S. statistics are based on data for 65 CBSAs.  To determine the price tier, the median list price was the median of homes listed in the 65 CBSAs for the given month.

Nursing most dangerous job in America? It ain’t what you’d expect?

 

There’s a headline that might surprise: Working in state-run and residential care facilities were riskier than being a police officer or a firefighter in 2016.

Since 2012, nurses and health aides in state-run residential care and nursing settings have accounted for the highest rates of injury and illnesses tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industry reported 164,300 employee injuries and illnesses in 2016 and racked up an incident rate that was roughly 30 percent higher than what was recorded by emergency workers in the nation’s police and fire departments.

once considered the most dangerous in the country still pose deadly risks to workers – landscaping, roofing and highway construction reported more worker deaths than any other industry over the past 21 months, according to federal data. However, the documented dangers posed by nursing and other service-related fields highlight ongoing shifts in how Americans earn a living, and experts say will continue as more and more traditional blue-collar jobs are automated or made obsolete altogether.

Deborah Berkowitz, program director of worker safety and health at the National Employment Law Project, said the high injury and illness rates in nursing are indicative of the physicality and strains of the job. She said back injuries in particular are a problem.

“Not only are they lifting patients out of the bed, but they’re repositioning them, they’re trying to prevent patients from falling,” said Berkowitz, whose nonprofit advocates for low-wage workers. She previously served as chief of staff for the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration from 2009 to 2015.

inside Orlando’s first Earth Fare market in Lake Nona

 

 

will be getting the first of what could be many of organic grocery chain Earth Fare’s greater locations.

The Fletcher, N.C.-based company opened its 24,000-square-foot store at 13204 Narcoossee Road on Sept. 29 as the anchor to the $10.5 million Shoppes at Nona Place facility. The store features the same styling as many other Earth Fare stores, but there is a local feel for the residents of Lake Nona, according to Earth Fare CEO Frank Scorpiniti.

“What is not prototype is how we join each community, some of the refinement we do and the assortment of local products we have on the shelf,” Scorpiniti told Orlando Journal.“While the furniture is pretty darn similar, the people and local product assortment will be very focused for each store we open.”

The location at the Shoppes at Nona Place is among an increase of development in the area, including a 7,000-square-foot store for Sunrise-based Pet Supermarket Inc. The shopping center, developed by Palm Beach Gardens-based Blackfin Partners and Canadian firm North American Development Group, still is looking for other tenants. Interested parties can go here for more information.

Why develop in Lake Nona? We have a store we developed in Lakewood Ranch with (Development Co.), and of course, we toured many of its developments. We came to Lake Nona having known that, and we were incredibly inspired by the health and wellness focus of this particular community. We had become aware of this potential two-and-a-half year ago and understood the growth that was going to occur in this community with the young families, with moms and dads focused on health. What we offer was kind of missing here, and what we could do fills a need that has yet been addressed.

What has it been like getting more involved in the community? We have been here as a management team many times, but one of the ways our company becomes familiar with the community is we ask people to serve on community advisory boards and have met with our teams on more than four occasions to help us understand the community. That started 90 days ago, and we really appreciate what they do to tell us what the community needs, what we can do to be a better neighbor — and that’s put into the building blocks of this particular store.

What does it mean to stick to an organic food philosophy compared to other chains? It makes us very proud our focus is on health and wellness. We know if we do this right, the sales and growth of our company will come. Rather than being focused on selling everything, we’re focused on making sure we don’t sell what we perceive to be bad for health. I think that’s a very special position in retail — we have a higher purpose than filling a grocery buggy. Our purpose is filling it with longevity, health, and happiness.

What are the next expansion steps for the area? Our next store in the area will be by Orlando Health on the corner of Orange Avenue and Gore Street. That will open later this year and we are very excited. That will be No. 2 of probably eight to 10 stores we are looking at in the Orlando area currently. Many of these are still under negotiation.

UCF Lake Nona Medical Center CEO

By   – Staff Writer, Orlando Journal
 Updated 

The University of Central Florida’s planned teaching hospital, dubbed Medical Center, now has a CEO.

Central Florida Regional Hospital CEO Wendy Brandon will take on the role Jan. 1. The proposed 100-bed hospital is expected to be completed by 2020.

“Wendy is a seasoned, dynamic leader who has played a pivotal role in our partnership with at Lake Nona, and we are excited to have her lead our newest hospital in the Central Florida region,” HCA Healthcare’s North Florida Division President Michael P. Joyce said in a prepared statement. “Under her leadership, we will advance health care in Lake Nona , improve quality of life for the community and provide education that ignites careers in medicine at UCF Lake Nona Medical Center.”

Brandon has been CEO for HCA Healthcare Inc’s (NYSE: HCA) 221-bed Central Florida Regional Hospital in Sanford for the past 10 years, with accomplishments including the launch of the hospital’s Level II trauma center and the development of Oviedo Medical Center. She earned a bachelor’s in business administration from the University of Tennessee at Martin and her MBA from Belmont University. She also has leadership roles with several organizations, including the Orlando Economic Partnership Board, CareerSource Central Florida Board, the Sanford Rotary Club and Seminole County Regional Chamber of Commerce Board.

The center will create 302 high-wage jobs, with salaries ranging from $60,000 to $600,000, and has the potential to retain some Sanford Burnham researchers.

Along with the hospital, UCF plans to add more developments as it moves its colleges of nursing and medicine to the campus. University partner Alter+Care will design and develop a 150,000-square-foot building, which will include 90,000 square feet for the College of Nursing and 60,000 square feet for expansion and future Academic Health Sciences Center use at the campus. Those projects are targeted to open by spring 2022.

In addition, Lake Nona’s daytime population continues to grow with its Medical City life sciences hub and future developments such as New York-based audit giant KPMG LLP’s $430 million, 55-acre training facility being built on Lake Nona Boulevard. The community already boasts more than 11,000 residents, 5,000 employees and more than 11,000 students at its schools.

It will be built in Medical City near Sanford Burnham Prebys Medical Discovery Institute, a facility UCF is set to take over as La Jolla, Calif.-based Sanford Burnham winds down its Florida operations.

The university received approval in August to take over the 175,000-square-foot Sanford Burnham research facility. The public research university closed on the existing facility Aug. 27, with Sanford Burnham occupying the building until Nov. 30. The university will begin doing research there by March 1.

UCF wants to turn the facility into a cancer research and treatment center with partner organizations such as Knoxville, Tenn.-based Provision Healthcare LLC, and HCA’s Sarah Cannon Research Institute LLC. UCF has projected its plan will result in a $578 million economic output after five years of operations.

“It’s fantastic for a couple of reasons,” UCF President Dale Whittaker previously told Orlando Business Journal. “One is it creates a private investment in the community, it gives us an additional treatment option, which is fairly unique in the community as well as significant clinical research. Sarah Cannon has been involved with almost 75 percent of the cancer research drugs that have been approved recently, so this is a nationally very powerful clinical research organization added to our university-level basic research.”

 

Price Pressure Fueled by Limited Supply

 

 

 

CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) has exceeded the pre-crisis peak and continues to grow with a strong and steady pace. With demand strong and inventory thin, the share of selling for the list price or more has also returned to pre-bust levels.

Share of SalesWith demand outweighing supply, homes are more likely to sell above the asking price. Figure 1 shows the share of homes that sold at a price above, equal to or below the list price. [1] The share of homes selling at or above list price has returned to mid-2005 levels. In Q2 2018 that share represented more than 40 percent of total sales – almost triple the level during the trough in January 2008. The share of homes selling for less than list price has made up the majority of sales over the past 10 years. Regardless of market conditions, there are always highly motivated sellers – including those who begin with unrealistic expectations – willing to drop their price.

Share of Sales

Housing markets are different across the nation. Therefore, sales and listing patterns also vary geographically. Figure 2 shows the share of homes that sold at, above, or below their list prices in 20 CBSAs during July 2018. San Francisco had the largest share of homes – 81 percent – that sold for at least the list price. Seattle and Minneapolis followed with 65 and 58 percent selling for the list price or more, respectively. Houston and Miami had the lowest share – 27 and 20 percent – of homes selling at or above the list price in July 2018. San Francisco was one of the metros with the highest home price growth in the U.S. in July. According to the CoreLogic HPI, home prices in San Francisco increased 11 percent year over year in July. On the other hand, Miami had a moderate annual home price increase of 4.6 percent in July.

Months Supply vs Service Premium

Price pressures rapidly increase as supply drops below 3 months. Figure 3 shows the price premium or discount and months’ supply for over 200 CBSAs in July 2018. In San Francisco and San Jose, where months’ supply was at 2 and 2.2, respectively, home buyers had to pay 9.7 and 5.4 percent more than the asking price on average. On the other hand, markets like Miami and Naples, where months’ supply are sufficient at 10 and 12, home buyers were able to negotiate below asking prices, with average discounts of 6.5 and 7.5 percent, respectively, in July 2018.

Note: The U.S. statistics are based on data for 65 CBSAs. Each of these CBSAs has at least 50 percent coverage since 2000. CoreLogic MLS data coverage usually increases over time, which might also contribute to inventory increases.

[1] Figures 1 and 2 use 65 CBSAs to aggregate national level statistics. The inventory has not been adjusted for growth in the number of households over time. As the number of households increases over time, the ‘equivalent’ level of inventory should rise as well.

© 2018 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

Chick-fil-A -slated Lake Nona

By   – Staff Writer, Orlando Journal
 Updated 

A 75,000-square-foot retail development soon could be home to ‘s first Chick-fil-A.

College Park, Ga.-based Chick-fil-A Inc. is in talks for signing a lease at Tyson’s Corner, a retail development at the northeast corner of Narcoossee and Tyson Road, sources told Orlando Business Journal. It would be the first Chick-fil-A location in Lake Nona.

A Chick-fil-A spokeswoman said the company hopes to have more to confirm about a Lake Nona location in the weeks to come. “We would very much like to have a new location in the Lake Nona area, but we have no new locations to confirm at this time,” spokeswoman Jessica Ferrell told OBJ.

Meanwhile, several other tenants either have signed leases or are in talks for space inside Tyson’s Corner. Click through the slideshow below to see which tenants could be coming to the retail center.

SRS brokered the purchase for the 9.69-acre Tyson’s Corner property on June 15, according to Orange County records. Entities related to Clearwater-based Epic Development Co. bought the property for $9 million from entity Lake Nona Holdings LLC. “We like the demographics and the growth,” said Epic Development Managing Member Andrew Hupp, who declined to confirm tenant interest in Tyson’s Corner.

The site may break ground in February with potential tenants moving in by summer 2019, said Hupp. Holiday-based FWH Architects Inc. is the architect, and Palm Harbor-based AVID Group is the engineer. Epic typically handles the general contracting itself, but Hupp said it was too early to start accepting subcontracting bids.

The property, which is next to Lake Nona High School, adds to new retail in Lake Nona. The largest retail project is the $300 million piece of Lake Nona Town Center, which is expected to make a big retail and splash for the growing southeast Orlando community, which already boasts more than 11,000 residents, 5,000 employees and 14,000-plus students at its schools.

Lake Nona pizza and brew pub

By   – Associate Managing Editor, Orlando Journal

anyone, Lake Nona. A new original restaurant concept will open its doors soon in the community’s developing entertainment center.

Park Pizza & Brewing Co. — the new 5,055-square-foot, 186-seat restaurant and brewery created by Restaurant Collection — will open in November on Lake Nona Boulevard south of State Road 417 in the Lake Nona Town Center. This will be the third Lake Nona restaurant for Tavistock Restaurant Collection, a sister company to Lake Nona developer Tavistock Development Co. LLC., joining Canvas Restaurant & Market and Chroma Modern Bar + Kitchen.

The new restaurant will be a community-focused gathering place with indoor and outdoor seating, serving scratch-made pizza from wood-burning ovens and an onsite glass-enclosed brewery featuring craft beers, as Orlando Business Journal previously reported. The restaurant in an existing space near Chroma will offer dine-in and order-ahead pick-up to go.

“Park Pizza will be a laid-back place where any family will feel welcome to enjoy affordable, high-quality food and craft beer,” Park Pizza & Brewing Co. General Manager MaryAnna Ford said in a prepared statement.

Here’s more from the eatery:

The 12- and 16-inch wood-fired pizzas at the restaurant will begin with housemade, hand-tossed dough, topped with San Marzano tomatoes for the signature sauce, and finished with traditional and premium toppings like buffalo mozzarella, artisanal sausage, fire-roasted fresh vegetables and fresh herbs. The 900-degree pizza ovens will also serve as the primary cooking space for skillet-roasted mussels, oak roasted crispy wings, child-friendly dough poppers and more. … Other design elements include large urban-style murals, art influenced by local artists, interactive wallpaper and large roll-up garage doors on both sides of the dining room for an open and airy feel during cooler months.

Park Pizza & Brewing Co. will be overseen by Chef Jason Bergeron, who also runs the kitchens at Chroma and Canvas. The restaurant — one of several lining up in the surrounding area — also will provide views of the 30,000-square-foot Boxi Park, a retail area built with shipping containers which will open in December with bars, restaurants, beach volleyball courts, and an entertainment venue.

Plus, this restaurant adds to all the other activity in the 17-square-mile Lake Nona, the fast-growing southeast Orlando community that boasts more than 11,000 residents, 5,000 employees in the 650-acre biotech hub, and 14,000-plus students at its schools.

Lake Nona to land big biotech facility

By   – Staff Writer, Journal

Before dirt even has been tossed, a future biotech manufacturing plant in ’s 650-acre is dreaming up expansion plans.

The 18-acre site — likely slated for Cranbury, N.J.-based global tech and biopharmaceutical company Amicus TherapeuticsInc. (Nasdaq: FOLD) — already is being considered for a planned development with manufacturing, office and warehouse space.

And it may include a future phase to accommodate additional parking, office space and a lab area, city of Orlando project planner Wes Shaffer said at a Sept. 13 meeting.

Amicus executives haven’t responded to requests for comment. However, an unnamed company behind “Project Olympus” this month received a city committee approval to build a 200,700-square-foot development at the southwest corner of Laureate Boulevard and Medical City Drive. Real estate sources said Amicus likely is the company behind Project Olympus.

Additionally, Amicus reportedly also was considering other cities for a new facility, but the Orlando City Council approved a nearly $380,000 incentive deal Aug. 20 to attract the company to Central Florida.

The facility would be the first biologic drug substance manufacturing plant with associated research and development in Lake Nona. It’s a major win not only for Orlando but also for Lake Nona, which already is home to the Orlando VA Medical Center, Nemours Children’s Hospital and the University of Central Florida medical school, among others.

“The fact that an innovative business such as Amicus is considering Orlando to build the first biologic drug substance manufacturing plant solidifies Medical City’s ability to attract new and innovative companies,” city spokeswoman Jessica Garcia said.

The new facility would add to a bevy of industrial activity nearby as part of the airport/Lake Nona submarket, one of the largest in the Orlando area.

Sports facility company shoots for next location,Lake Nona

By   – Staff Writer, Journal

An Orlando-based sports facility operator has scored a new location in Central Florida as it gears up for another.

XL Soccer World expects to build a $7 million, 50,000-square-foot facility in and open it next summer, CEO Ciaran McArdle told Orlando Business Journal. The company operates about eight facilities in the U.S, including one at 825 Courtland St. near the intersection of Lee Road and Interstate 4. That facility opened in 2011.

McArdle, a Lake Nona resident, hopes to attract soccer players and fans from Lake Nona and surrounding communities such as Kissimmee and St. Cloud. “We’ve seen tremendous success and popularity with what we do.”

The new facility will feature four fields for indoor soccer and futsal, a different version of soccer, among other uses. The facility will spread across roughly four acres off Narcoossee Road less than one mile south of State Road 417. XL Soccer World’s Xl Soccer World Orlando II LLC bought the 3.8-acre site from Narcoossee Land Holding Two Inc. for $571,400 on Aug. 27, according to Orange County records.

XL Sports Group

A contractor is expected to be announced soon. The architect is Orlando-based Butler Moore Architects LLC. Subcontractor opportunities likely will be available. A groundbreaking is expected before the end of the year.

McArdle declined to say where XL Soccer World’s next Central Florida facility will be, but he said it likely will be built in northwest Orlando.

XL Soccer World is the latest in a string of new sports companies to open facilities in Lake Nona. The $100 million U.S. Tennis Association National Campus opened its 100-court facility in 2016, and Drive Shack (NYSE: DS) opened its $25 million concept this spring.

Earth Fare Grand Opening in Lake Nona

By   – Staff Writer, Journal
 Updated 

Earth Fare will open its first organic grocery store in the area at the end of this month.

The Fletcher, NC.-based chain will open its store Sept. 29 in the Shoppes at Nona Place at 13024 Narcoosee Road in . The 24,000-square-foot location will feature a juice bar as well as a prepared food section with a salad bar, hot foods bar, pizza station, sandwich counter and pre-packed meals.

“At Earth Fare, we are passionate about helping our shoppers make the connection between clean food and longer, healthier, happier lives,” Earth Fare President and CEO Frank Scorpiniti said in a prepared statement. “Since 1975, we’ve been proudly encouraging shoppers to make healthier food choices easy and enjoyable, and we take great pride in expanding our strong Florida presence to the Nona community.”

Earth Fare provides food on its shelves that are free of added hormones and other non-organic ingredients. It keeps a list of booted ingredients which are not allowed on its shelves .

The chain will hold its grand opening celebration Sept. 29 at 7 a.m. with a ribbon-cutting ceremony and a check presentation to Nemours Children’s Hospital. There will be a mystery gift card giveaway for the first 500 customers in line with values up to $1,000, along with other giveaways, free samples, and product demonstrations.