The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price

 

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through September 2018 with Forecasts from October 2018 including live maps.

CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a thirty-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. Check out the site below for a Full report

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends

September 2018 National Home Prices

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.6 percent in September 2018 compared with September 2017 and increased month over month by 0.4 percent in September 2018 compared with August 2018 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

 

Forecast Prices Nationally

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2018 to September 2019, and on month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease slightly by 0.6 from September 2018 to October 2018.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

In 2018, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive consumer housing sentiment study, combining consumer and property insights. The study assessed attitudes toward homeownership and the drivers of the home buying or renting decision process. When asked about the desire to own a home, potential buyers in the younger millennial demographic have the desire to buy, 40 percent are extremely or very interested in homeownership. In fact, 64 percent say they regularly monitor home values in their local market. However, while, 80 percent of younger millennials plan to move in the next four or five years, 73 percent cite as a barrier to homeownership (far higher than any other age cohort).

Supply of Homes For Sale Up Year Over Year in July 2018

Nation’s Months’ Supply of Homes For Sale Up Year Over Year in July 2018

SAN FRANCISCO METRO AREA HAD THE LOWEST MONTHS’ SUPPLY IN JULY

BY SHU CHEN HOUSING , REAL ESTATE


U.S. home prices have risen year-over-year by more than 6 percent since August 2017, fueled by strong demand and a lack of supply in many markets. However, due to rising mortgage interest rates and slowing sales nationally, the number of increased slightly to a 3.2 months’ supply[1] in July 2018, up from 3.1 months in July 2017.

Months Supply By Price Tier

Figure 1 breaks out the months’ supply into four price tiers: low price (0-75 percent of median list price), low to middle price (75-100 percent of median list price), middle to moderate price (100-125 percent of median list price) and high price (125 percent or more of median list price). Usually, the high price tier has the largest months’ supply and the low to middle price tier has the lowest months’ supply. The differences in the months’ supply among the four price tiers were greatest during the 2007-2009 crisis period when the high-price tier peaked at 20.2 months and the other tiers remained less than 15 months.

Here’s how each price tier’s months’ supply in July 2018 compares with its recent history:

  • The low-price tier had a 3.2-month supply, which was down 0.2 months from July 2017, and was less than a quarter of its peak at January 2008.
  • The low- to middle-price tier had a 2.5-month supply, down 0.1 months from July 2017. The July supply was about 18 percent of its January 2009 peak.
  • The middle- to moderate-price tier had a 2.7-month supply, up 0.2 months from July 2017. The July supply was also about 18 percent of its January 2009 peak.
  • The high-price tier had a 4-month supply, down 0.2 months from July 2017. The July supply was 20 percent of its January 2009 peak.

Sold in 30 Days

With demand strong and supply tight, many homes don’t spend long on the market in 2018. Figure 2 shows that over the past four years the share of homes selling within 30 days of the initial list date[2] has been at historical highs. In July 2018, the share selling within 30 days was 25.4 percent, which was almost double the pre-crisis peak in 2005 and more than triple the level during the February 2008 trough. Figure 3 shows the share of the for-sale inventory that was on the market for more than 180 days. In July 2018, that share was 19.9 percent, about 2.2 percentage points lower than the average in 2017 and half of the peak in March 2009.

Inventory on Market 180 Days

Figure 4 shows the months’ supplies in the U.S. (based on data for 65 CBSAs) and selected CBSAs in July 2018 and July 2017. The months’ supply in West Palm Beach and Honolulu increased 1.2 and 1.9 months, respectively, in July 2018 compared to a year earlier. San Francisco and Seattle had the lowest months’ supplies in July 2018: 2.0 months and 2.4 months, respectively.  Philadelphia showed the largest decline – 0.9 months – in July 2018 compared with a year earlier.

US and CBSA Month Supply

[1] The month’s supply is calculated as the ratio of the for-sale inventory at the end of the month to the number of homes sold during the same month and represents the number of months it would take to sell the inventory at that month’s sales pace. The U.S. statistics are based on data for 65 CBSAs.  To determine the price tier, the median list price was the median of homes listed in the 65 CBSAs for the given month.

Price Pressure Fueled by Limited Supply

 

 

 

CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) has exceeded the pre-crisis peak and continues to grow with a strong and steady pace. With demand strong and inventory thin, the share of selling for the list price or more has also returned to pre-bust levels.

Share of SalesWith demand outweighing supply, homes are more likely to sell above the asking price. Figure 1 shows the share of homes that sold at a price above, equal to or below the list price. [1] The share of homes selling at or above list price has returned to mid-2005 levels. In Q2 2018 that share represented more than 40 percent of total sales – almost triple the level during the trough in January 2008. The share of homes selling for less than list price has made up the majority of sales over the past 10 years. Regardless of market conditions, there are always highly motivated sellers – including those who begin with unrealistic expectations – willing to drop their price.

Share of Sales

Housing markets are different across the nation. Therefore, sales and listing patterns also vary geographically. Figure 2 shows the share of homes that sold at, above, or below their list prices in 20 CBSAs during July 2018. San Francisco had the largest share of homes – 81 percent – that sold for at least the list price. Seattle and Minneapolis followed with 65 and 58 percent selling for the list price or more, respectively. Houston and Miami had the lowest share – 27 and 20 percent – of homes selling at or above the list price in July 2018. San Francisco was one of the metros with the highest home price growth in the U.S. in July. According to the CoreLogic HPI, home prices in San Francisco increased 11 percent year over year in July. On the other hand, Miami had a moderate annual home price increase of 4.6 percent in July.

Months Supply vs Service Premium

Price pressures rapidly increase as supply drops below 3 months. Figure 3 shows the price premium or discount and months’ supply for over 200 CBSAs in July 2018. In San Francisco and San Jose, where months’ supply was at 2 and 2.2, respectively, home buyers had to pay 9.7 and 5.4 percent more than the asking price on average. On the other hand, markets like Miami and Naples, where months’ supply are sufficient at 10 and 12, home buyers were able to negotiate below asking prices, with average discounts of 6.5 and 7.5 percent, respectively, in July 2018.

Note: The U.S. statistics are based on data for 65 CBSAs. Each of these CBSAs has at least 50 percent coverage since 2000. CoreLogic MLS data coverage usually increases over time, which might also contribute to inventory increases.

[1] Figures 1 and 2 use 65 CBSAs to aggregate national level statistics. The inventory has not been adjusted for growth in the number of households over time. As the number of households increases over time, the ‘equivalent’ level of inventory should rise as well.

© 2018 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

NAR Pending Home Sales Report

WASHINGTON (August 29, 2018) — Pending home sales stepped back in July and have now fallen on an annual basis for seven straight months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 0.7 percent to 106.2 in July from 107.0 in June. With last month’s decline, contract signings are now down 2.3 percent year-over-year.

Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist, says the housing market’s summer slowdown continued in July. “Contract signings inched backward once again last month, as declines in the South and West weighed down on overall activity,” he said. “It’s evident in recent months that many of the most overheated real estate markets – especially those out West – are starting to see a slight decline in home sales and slower price growth.”

Added Yun, “The reason sales are falling off last year’s pace is that multiple years of inadequate supply in markets with strong job growth have finally driven up home prices to a point where an increasing number of prospective buyers are unable to afford it.”

https://goo.gl/AFukQb

Pointing to annual changes in active listings data at realtor. com®, Yun said increasing inventory in several large metro areas, and especially many out West, will likely help cool price growth to more affordable levels going forward. Even as days on market remains swift in many of these areas, Denver, Santa Rosa, California, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California, Seattle, Nashville, Tennessee, and Portland, Oregon was among the large markets seeing a rise in active listings in July compared to a year ago.

Earlier this week, NAR released commentary reflecting on the past decade since the beginning of the Great Recession. Although supply and headwinds are the biggest issue right now, Yun said it is important to note just how much the housing market has recovered since the depths of the financial crisis. Today, thanks to several years of solid job growth, as well as safe lending and regulatory policy reforms, foreclosures sit near historic lows and record high home values have helped millions of households build substantial wealth.

“Rising inventory levels – especially if new home finally starts picking up – should help slow price appreciation to around two-and-four percent, which will help aspiring first-time buyers, and be good for the long-term health of the nation’s housing market,” said Yun.

Yun expects existing-home sales this year to decrease 1.0 percent to 5.46 million, and the national median existing-home price to increase around 5.0 percent. Looking ahead to next year, existing sales are forecast to increase 2 percent and home prices around 3.5 percent.

July Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

The PHSI in the Northeast climbed 1.0 percent to 94.6 in July but is still 2.3 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index inched up 0.3 percent to 102.2 in July but is still 1.5 percent lower than July 2017.

Pending home sales in the South declined 1.7 percent to an index of 122.1 in July, and are 0.9 percent below a year ago. The index in the West decreased 0.9 percent in July to 94.7 and is 5.8 percent below a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

* The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing . A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

NOTE: NAR’s August Housing Minute video will be released on August 31, Existing-Home Sales for August will be reported September 20, and the next Pending Home Sales Index will be September 27; all release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.

Property Man – Bob Massi Features Lake Nona and Orlando

features in a recent episode… Not only is Lake Nona and one of the fastest growing cities across the nation, but the here is perfect for . Orlando is used as a meter for the real estate market because of the booming economy and the constant influx of new residents and visitors. In this episode, Bob Massi answers why Orlando is so successful and features Lake Nona and as one of the fasted growing community across the nation. Bob takes a tour around Orlando and Lake Nona to see why the market is so successful. The most important message to take away about Orlando is, as most cities across the nation feel the ups and downs of the economic rollercoaster, Orlando is the first to recover and last to feel the pinch.

Watch as Bob Massi uncovers the reasons why Orlando truly is the city beautiful…

As always… comment, like and share. Your feedback helps us know how to help you better!

-The Maycumber Team of WeKnowOrlando.com

407-251-1314

2018’s Real-Estate Markets

 

Information on the housing markets

Whether you’re joining the real-estate business or just looking for a place to call home, it’s important to get a handle on the housing markets you’re considering before investing in a property. With unemployment falling and house prices rising, the market as a whole has been in a boom. But while home values are rising, up almost $16,000 on average just in the first quarter of 2018, fewer are being built and bought because mortgage rates are rising. However, home prices and rental rates vary widely across the U.S. based on supply and demand.

If you aim for long-term growth, equity and profit, you’ll need to look beyond tangible factors like square footage and style. Those factors certainly drive up property values. From an investor’s standpoint, though, they hold less significance than historical market trends and the economic health of residents.

To determine the best local real-estate markets in the U.S., WalletHub compared 300 cities of varying sizes across 22 key indicators of housing-market attractiveness and economic strength. Our dataset ranges from median home-price appreciation to home sales turnover rate to job growth. Read on for our findings, expert insight from a panel of researchers and a full description of our methodology.

Best Places to Buy a House

http://WWW.WeKnowOrlando.com

Overall rank (1=Best) City Total Score ‘Real-Estate Market’ Rank ‘Affordability & Economic Environment’ Rank
1 Frisco, TX 75.06 8 1
2 McKinney, TX 74.6 7 2
3 Allen, TX 73.93 11 3
4 Santa Clara, CA 73.79 1 247
5 Durham, NC 72.45 5 60
6 Murfreesboro, TN 72.4 10 7
7 Richardson, TX 72.29 12 10
8 Seattle, WA 72.16 3 171
9 Bellevue, WA 72.14 4 142
10 Denton, TX 71.98 9 23
11 Sunnyvale, CA 70.71 2 276
12 Carrollton, TX 70.17 16 24
13 Denver, CO 70.16 6 132
14 Cary, NC 69.39 41 4
15 Fort Worth, TX 69.34 13 88
16 Roseville, CA 69.2 18 37
17 Thornton, CO 69.11 21 30
18 Fort Collins, CO 68.96 19 38
19 Boise, ID 68.95 23 40
20 Aurora, CO 68.86 15 102
21 Irving, TX 68.45 24 62
22 Arvada, CO 68.17 22 82
23 Colorado Springs, CO 68.12 33 26
24 Renton, WA 67.83 17 149
25 Nashville, TN 67.77 29 66
26 Grand Rapids, MI 67.74 25 95
27 Irvine, CA 67.58 40 27
28 Charlotte, NC 67.49 35 42
29 Overland Park, KS 67.41 32 69
30 Longmont, CO 67.32 20 161

Ask the Experts

Economic indicators point to a strong housing market, but does that mean it’s a good time to buy a home? We consulted a panel of experts for their insight. Click on the panelists’ profiles below to read their bios and thoughts on the following key questions:

  1. Is now a good time to buy a home? What economic indicators should potential buyers be watching?
  2. Are foreign buyers driving up the cost of U.S. real estate? Which cities are most affected?
  3. How likely is it that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in the coming months? How will this impact the housing market?
  4. Why are Millennials still sitting out of the housing market? What can be done to increase homeownership rates for this cohort?
  5. In evaluating the healthiest housing markets, what are the top five indicators?
  • WaysAICP – Associate Professor and Program Director, MS in Real Estate Development, Jefferson University
  • J. BetancurProfessor, University of Illinois at Chicago
  • AcolinAssistant Professor, University of Washington’s College of Built Environment
  • G. ChernoffProfessor, New York University
  • M. SpringerProfessor of Finance and Real Estate, Department of Finance, Clemson University; President, Faculty Advisory Council and College of Business Faculty and Secretary, American Real Estate Society

 

CoreLogic Home Price Insights – July 2018

 

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through July 2018 with Forecasts from August 2018 including live maps.

CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a thirty-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.

July 2018 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.2 percent in July 2018 compared with July 2017 and increased month over month by 0.3 percent in July 2018 compared with June 2018 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.1 percent on a year-over-year basis from July 2018 to July 2019, and on month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease slightly by 0.2 from July 2018 to August 2018.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

Sales of previously owned US Homes update

US HOME SALES DROP TO 2 YEAR LOW
Sales of previously owned U.S. unexpectedly slumped for a fourth month to the weakest in more than two years, signaling higher prices and tight supplies continue to squeeze demand, a National Association of Realtors report showed Wednesday.
HIGHLIGHTS OF EXISTING-HOME SALES (JULY)
• Contract closings fell 0.7% m/m to a 5.34m annual rate (est. 5.4m), the slowest pace since Feb. 2016, after unrevised 5.38m
• Median sales price increased 4.5% y/y to $269,600
• Inventory of available properties unchanged y/y at 1.92mKey Takeaways
The report adds to other recent signs of cooling in real estate markets. Prospective home buyers are increasingly discouraged by rising borrowing costs and property-price increases that are outpacing wage growth. The share of Americans who say it’s a good time to buy a home fell in August to 63 percent, the smallest since 2008, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed on Friday.

Continuing declines in purchases of single-family homes and cheaper properties suggest that the market is being supported by an increasing concentration of activity among those with higher income and financial assets.

The slump was led by an 8.3 percent decline in the Northeast, while the South and Midwest also decreased. Sales rose in the West.

Official’s Views
The decline in sales “has been a slow drip, and the is the same story, where we’re lacking inventory,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a press briefing accompanying the report.

Other Details
• At the current pace, it would take 4.3 months to sell the homes on the market, unchanged from the prior month; Realtors group considers less than five months’ supply consistent with a tight market
• Single-family home sales fell 0.2 percent to an annual rate of 4.75 million
• Purchases of condominium and co-op units dropped 4.8 percent to a 590,000 pace
• First-time buyers made up 32 percent of all sales, compared with 31 percent in the prior month
• Homes were on the market for an average 27 days, compared with 26 days in June
• 55 percent of homes sold in July were on market for less than a month, NAR said
• Existing home sales account for 90 percent of the market and are calculated when a contract closes; new home sales, considered a timelier indicator though their share is only about 10 percent, are tabulated when contracts get signed

BY: Jeff Kearns and Katia Dmitrieva

Planned $40M Oviedo ‘medical city’ delays groundbreaking.

A planned “medical city” project in by Adventus Oviedo that was set to break ground this summer now has to wait a few more months.

Winter Springs-based Aventus Health LLC, an owner of labs, pharmacies, and medical facilities, originally planned to break ground this summer on a $40 million, a 150,000-square-foot project called Aventus MedCi. The project, which will be built directly behind the Oviedo on the Park mixed-use development on about 7 acres on the west side of Oviedo Boulevard, needs to get more permits before the official groundbreaking, according to a statement issued by CEO Oliver Dawoud to OBJ.

The firm will apply for those remaining permits by the end of September. Aventus previously secured a vertical construction permit from the city of Oviedo in early April and had received conditional approval six months before that.

The goal is to have the official groundbreaking in late November, with the completion date being set once the groundbreaking is finalized. Previous estimates set the project as a two-year undertaking.

Aventus MedCi’s first phase will feature a 60,000-square-foot medical building and a 31,000-square-foot, 1.5-level parking garage. Phase 2 will add a 40,000-square-foot medical building and another 3.5 levels to the parking garage, according to city documents. Besides Adventus’s administration offices and the health care team, the building also will house an urgent care clinic, a surgery center, a clinical research center, advanced diagnostic imaging, a pharmacy and a laboratory.

Winter Springs-based American Civil Engineering Co. is the project engineer/consultant, Atlanta-based ASD | SKY is the architect and Charles Perry Partners Inc. of Gainesville is the general contractor.

The project previously was hailed as a major economic driver for the area. It is estimated to create more than 500-600 jobs upon completion and help the city overcome its reputation as just being a residential area, according to Oviedo Mayor Dominic Persampiere.

Other medical growth also is headed to the area. For example,  Hospital announced plans to build a freestanding emergency room in Oviedo set to break ground in October. That project has an estimated completed date of third-quarter 2019.

By   – Staff Writer, Orlando Business Journal

Best cities for career opportunities

7 Things to know today

By   – Editor, Orlando Business Journal

Good morning, Orlando!

If you’re looking for a city offering low unemployment, affordable homes, and high pay, then you need to head to Ames, Iowa, according to a new study from SmartAsset.

For its fourth annual study, SmartAsset ranked 355 cities on metrics that included a change in total employment, median income, annual housing costs and career support such as counselors and higher education teachers.

Utah claimed two spots among the top 10 cities because of affordability and job opportunities. Included in the top 10 were Provo, Utah, Pocatello, Idaho, Greeley, Colo., Huntsville, Ala., Logan, Utah, Lafayette, Ind., Wausau, Wis., Spartanburg, S.C., and Dayton, Ohio. Alas, Orlando didn’t make the top of the list.

And be sure to check out these other Monday headlines:

South Florida developer aims for new Orlando development

A Miami-based developer is squaring up a new development on a former golf course near Mall at Millenia into nearly 1,000 condo or multifamily units along with commercial retail space. More here.

Space Coast Launch Services LLC lays off 102 positions

Space Coast Launch Services LLC will shed 102 jobs from its location at Patrick Air Force Base. All layoffs will happen on Sept. 30, according to a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification filed on July 26. More here.

Of the 10 best cities to raise a family, nine were either in the Midwest or the South, which was due largely to lower mortgage expenses for homeowners, shorter commutes, strong local economic conditions, and lower infant care costs. Meanwhile, Orlando ranked as the 44th best place to raise a family. See the full study here.

NASA names first astronauts for SpaceX, Boeing space station missions

NASA has revealed the nine astronauts — seven men and two women — who will fly the first American-made commercial spacecraft to and from the International Space Station. More here.

More than a third of college students go hungry

As students get ready to head back to school for the fall, here’s a new study worth noting: Buying nutritious food is a problem for more than a third of American college students, many of whom are working at low-income jobs, living off financial aid and student loans or raising families as they work towards a degree.