A Former Lehman Brothers Trader: I Bet My Reputation That This Bubble Will Pop In A Year

Summary

In 2000, we had the dot-com bubble.

In 2007, we had the housing bubble.

In 2017, we have the everything bubble.

It wasn’t always this way. We never used to get a giant, speculative bubble every 7–8 years. We really didn’t.

In 2000, we had the dot-com bubble.

In 2007, we had the housing bubble.

In 2017, we have the everything bubble.

Why do we call it the everything bubble? Well, there is a bubble in a bunch of asset classes simultaneously, like:

  1. Real estate in Canada, Australia, and Sweden
  2. Real estate in California
  3. Cryptocurrencies
  4. FANG, plus Tesla, and a few others
  5. Corporate credit
  6. EM sovereign credit
  7. Autos
  8. Indexing
  9. Dramatic television series
  10. Sports
  11. Animated movies

For the last few, I am just screwing around… though they are also bubbles.

I don’t like going around and calling things bubbles. It’s a good way to lose credibility (especially if you started in 2013).

I haven’t been exactly bullish over the last year. But I have refrained from calling it stupid, because it could always get stupider.

But now, I’m not sure how much more stupid things will get.

Bitcoin Pushed Me Over the Edge

First, let’s define what a bubble is. A bubble is not simply a matter of overvaluation. It has to be accompanied by an obsession or preoccupation with an asset class.

When you see people making haystacks of cash all out of proportion to their intelligence or work ethic?

Bubble!

That is kind of what is happening right now in cryptocurrencies.

Am I some kind of Luddite? No.

Do I see the potential of blockchain? Yes.

But when I see people behaving this way—literally throwing money at each other—you’re probably closer to the end than the beginning.

People are comparing Bitcoin to tulip bulbs. I think those comparisons are apt. But at least with tulips, you had something tangible—a plant.