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Core Logic report of Homes Sales Statistics

 

 

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our home price analysis through May 2018 with Forecasts from June 2018 including live maps.

CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a thirty-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx

May 2018 National Home Prices

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 7.1 percent in May 2018 compared with May 2017 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in May 2018 compared with April 2018 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

 

Forecast Prices Nationally

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.1 percent on a year-over-year basis from May 2018 to May 2019, and on month-over-month basis home prices are expected to be up 0.3 percent from May 2018 to June 2018.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

HOUSING INVENTORY: LOWEST IN DECADES

 

 

 

 

 

 

Resale inventory is at the lowest level in more than 18 years and continues to decrease. New home construction hasn’t kept pace with demand, and the result is an inventory shortage at a time when demographic and economic indicators are moving upward for the .

One way to measure for-sale housing inventory is with “months’ supply,” which shows how many months it would take to sell the available inventory at the current sales pace, as if no other came on the market, which is unlikely but it is a good snapshot to measure health.

Month's Supply Lowest In More Than 18 Years

The housing market is seasonal, so when comparing the data over time we look at these numbers for the same month of each year. In March 2018, the months’ supply was approximately 3.8 months measured across the country, which means it would take only 3.8 months to sell all the existing houses listed at the March 2018 sales pace.  The March 2018 supply was about the same level as in March 2017, but well below where it was during the Great Recession, and tighter than it was before the housing boom. By this measure, inventory is the tightest it’s been in over 18 years.

Inventory Tight for Entry-Level Buyers

When we dig deeper into inventory at different price levels we see that inventory for entry-level homes is even tighter. Using the median price as the reference, we look at months’ supply for homes listed at different price points, for those homes listed at the entry-level (priced from 50 percent of median sale price up to 25 percent above) there was only a 3-month supply available for sale. There is more supply at higher price points – close to 7 months for homes listed for more than twice the median sale price.

Areas of the country with strong job growth have even lower supply. Denver, Seattle, and San Francisco have about 2 months of supply, making each of those cities a sellers’ market. Miami, with a supply made up mostly of condos, has the highest supply of the largest metros at 9 months.

Month's Supply in Large Metro Areas

The incredibly tight inventory on the low end has pushed prices up for that segment of the market. As measured by the CoreLogic Home Price Index, prices for lower-end homes increased by almost 10 percent year over year in March 2018, while prices for higher-priced homes increased by 6 percent. Increases for lower-end homes can price entry-level buyers out of the housing market, keeping a lid on overall home sales.

© 2018 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

 

 

 

Resale inventory is at the lowest level in more than 18 years and continues to decrease. New home construction hasn’t kept pace with demand, and the result is an inventory shortage at a time when demographic and economic indicators are moving upward for the housing market.

One way to measure for-sale housing inventory is with “months’ supply,” which shows how many months it would take to sell the available inventory at the current sales pace, as if no other homes came on the market, which is unlikely but it is a good snapshot to measure health.

Month's Supply Lowest In More Than 18 Years

The housing market is seasonal, so when comparing the data over time we look at these numbers for the same month of each year. In March 2018, the months’ supply was approximately 3.8 months measured across the country, which means it would take only 3.8 months to sell all the existing houses listed for sale at the March 2018 sales pace.  The March 2018 supply was about the same level as in March 2017, but well below where it was during the Great Recession, and tighter than it was before the housing boom. By this measure, inventory is the tightest it’s been in over 18 years.

Inventory Tight for Entry-Level Buyers

When we dig deeper into inventory at different price levels we see that inventory for entry-level homes is even tighter. Using the median price as the reference, we look at months’ supply for homes listed at different price points, for those homes listed at the entry-level (priced from 50 percent of median sale price up to 25 percent above) there was only a 3-month supply available for sale. There is more supply at higher price points – close to 7 months for homes listed for more than twice the median sale price.

Areas of the country with strong job growth have even lower supply. Denver, Seattle, and San Francisco have about 2 months of supply, making each of those cities a sellers’ market. Miami, with a supply made up mostly of condos, has the highest supply of the largest metros at 9 months.

Month's Supply in Large Metro Areas

The incredibly tight inventory on the low end has pushed prices up for that segment of the market. As measured by the CoreLogic Home Price Index, prices for lower-end homes increased by almost 10 percent year over year in March 2018, while prices for higher-priced homes increased by 6 percent. Increases for lower-end homes can price entry-level buyers out of the housing market, keeping a lid on overall home sales.

© 2018 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

s Home Affordability at Breaking Point?

 

 

 

 

The combination of steadily increasing home prices and rising interest rates has impacted home by pushing up the monthly mortgage payment on median-priced by $150/month in just the first five months of 2018, according to the latest Mortgage Monitor Report released by Black Knight on Monday.

The monthly report, which looks at a variety of issues related to the mortgage finance and housing industry looked at the share of median income required to buy a median-priced home, while also exploring potential scenarios of home price appreciation, interest rate movement, and income growth to calculate their impact on home affordability over the next five years.

It found that even with incomes growing at a stronger-than-average rate, they haven’t been able to keep up with rising home prices and interest rates. Of all the states examined by the report, seven were less affordable than others and another 12 were heading up on the unaffordability index, the report said.

The seven states included Washington, D.C. that required 7 percent more of median income to make a monthly mortgage payment. Second on the list was California with a 6 percent increase, followed by Hawaii (5 percent); Oregon (3.5 percent); Maine (2.4 percent); Washington (0.7 percent); and Colorado (0.1 percent). It found that led by Washington, D.C., 14 states had a payment-to-income ratio higher than the national average of 23 percent.

“Though much of the country remains more affordable than long-term norms, the current trajectory would change that sooner rather than later,” said Ben Graboske, EVP of Black Knight’s Data & Analytics division. “We’ve modeled out multiple economic scenarios, some more conservative than others, and even with historically strong income growth, the current combination of home price and interest rate increases isn’t sustainable.”

Black Knight looked at multiple potential economic scenarios to get a sense of where affordability could be heading over the next five years and found that at the current pace of increases, affordability was an unsustainable prospect.

In the first scenario, Black Knight assumed that incomes continued to see strong growth, home prices kept rising at the current rate and interest rates rose by 50 basis points/year. With these numbers, the study found that in five years, home affordability would hit an all-time low.

For the second scenario, it was assumed that incomes remained strong, rates rose by 50 basis points/year, and home price growth decelerated to its 25-year average of 3.75 percent/year. Even with slower home price increase, Black Knight found that in five years it would take 30 percent of median income to make the monthly mortgage payment.

However, in the third scenario where home price appreciation slowed to 3.75 percent, interest rate increases were capped at 25 basis points/year and incomes remained strong, Black Knight found a more sustainable scenario emerging over the long run with national home affordability levels gradually rising to long-term averages in five years.

National Association of Realtors

Pending home sales slid in April to their third-lowest level over the past year according to the latest Pending Home Sales Index data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Thursday. The report indicated that the index declined 1.3 percent in April to 106.4 from an upwardly revised 107.8 in March. On a year over year basis, the index was down 2.1 percent and declined for the fourth straight month.

“Pending sales slipped in April and continued to stay within the same narrow range with little signs of breaking out,” said Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR. “Listings are typically going under contract in under a month and instances of multiple offers are increasingly common and pushing prices higher.”

Watch what Yun had to say about the other factors that impacted pending home sales and his take on the :

 

Predicting the Housing Market and Economic Health

 

The next recession is likely to be triggered by monetary and trade policy according to experts surveyed by Zillow, and that could happen as early as 2020. Through its 2018 Q2 Zillow Home Price Survey, the real estate engine asked more than 100 real estate experts and economists about their predictions for the as well as the triggers for the next recession and when it would begin.

A very few, only nine, of the over 100 experts surveyed believed that the next downturn would be triggered by the housing market. “By most measures, the is doing well; GDP is growing steadily and unemployment is near historic lows. This has prompted the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates four times since the start of 2017,” Zillow said in its survey. With two more rate hikes expected this year, the experts surveyed believed that raising rates too quickly could push the economy towards slower growth, leading to a recession.

Despite these misgivings, the respondents also thought that the housing market would continue to experience strong appreciation, predicting that home values in the U.S. would rise 5.5 percent in 2018 to a median of $220,000. They had predicted home values to rise 3.7 percent in 2018 during the same period last year.

“As we close in on the longest economic expansion this country has ever seen, meaningfully higher interest rates should eventually slow the frenetic pace of home value appreciation that we have seen over the past few years, a welcome respite for would-be buyers,” said Aaron Terrazas, Senior Economist at Zillow. “Housing is a critical issue in nearly every market across the country, and while much remains unknown about the precise path of the U.S. economy in the years ahead, another housing market crisis is unlikely to be a central protagonist in the next nationwide downturn.”

On average, panelists said they expected home value growth to slow further in coming years – to 4.1 percent by the end of next year, 2.9 percent in 2020, 2.6 percent in 2021 and 2.8 percent by 2022.

On mortgage credit, most of the respondents had a positive assessment of residential lending with 51 percent saying that today’s mortgage underwriting standards were “just about right, neither too tight, nor too loose.” Around 25 percent of respondents felt that underwriting standards were somewhat tight, whereas 21 percent said that they were somewhat loose.

A Record-breaking Month for the Housing Market

April was a quick selling month for the , according to Redfin. sold faster during the month than any other month Redfin has recorded since 2010, with homes staying on the market for just 36 days on average. This is six days faster than April of 2017. Homes were more expensive as well, with the national home sale price crossing the $300,000-mark for the first time in Redfin’s history. The median national home price was $302,000.

“Despite rising prices and low inventory, sales in 2018 so far are slightly higher than last year, which was the best year on record since the 2006 housing boom,” said Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson. “As we enter peak homebuying season, new listings will be key in maintaining sales growth and moderating the rapid price increases we’ve seen this year.”

In April the market gained a 5.7 percent month-over-month increase in newly listed homes , a welcome relief in a month that saw a 9.2 percent year-over-year decrease in available homes. Of all the homes for sale in April, 26.2 percent sold for above their list price, a year-over-year increase from April 2017’s 24.9 percent.

Redfin also notes that only 2.8 months of supply remained at the end of April, while six months of supply is the signal of a healthy market. Tough competition due to the limited supply has raised prices in every large metro; no metro area with a population of 750,000 or more saw any decline in prices in April.

 

 

According to Redfin, Michigan metros were the most competitive and fastest growing in the nation. Detroit experienced a 21.2 percent year-over-year price increase, the second highest in the nation behind San Jose, followed by Grand Rapids, where homes spent on average just nine days on the market.

“Detroit and Grand Rapids are no different than other cities dealing with low inventory. In addition, buyers are pouring in from the east coast, west coast, and Chicago, which is adding to the demand,” said Kent Selders, a Redfin Market Manager in Michigan.

See how inventory shortages and price increases are impacting other metros here.

The Impact of Supply Shortage on Luxury Housing

 

 

 

The supply shortage of is not limited to the median home only. The first quarter of 2018 saw the also feeling the heat of inventory shortage as prices for high-end homes saw the strongest appreciation in four years, according to a report on the luxury housing market by Redfin.

This quarterly report tracks home sales in more than 1000 cities across the country and defines a home as a luxury property if it is among the top 5 percent most expensive homes sold in the city during the quarter.

Prices for luxury homes rose nearly 8 percent to an average of $1.8 million during the quarter, Redfin found. However, this did nothing for sales of these homes which fell 20 percent marking four consecutive quarters of declining sales in this segment of the housing market.

“For the first time since changes to the tax code went into effect, luxury buyers could no longer deduct more than $10,000 in state and local property taxes or interest for mortgages over $750,000,” said Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at Redfin. “In a world of balanced supply and demand, these changes would have dampened price growth. Instead, this quarter saw the strongest luxury price appreciation in four years, demonstrating that the current inventory crunch is extremely broad-based and affects buyers at every price range.”

The inventory shortage is also escalating competition for luxury homes. The report indicated the average luxury home that sold last quarter went under contract after 82 days on the market, nine days faster than the same period last year. While only 1.5 percent of luxury homes were bid up over the asking price, that’s up from 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2017.

In terms of regions, Florida and Nevada saw strong growth in prices of luxury homes with average sale prices in Vero Beach increasing 68 percent to $2.65 million over last year while those in Reno going up 51.3 percent. On the other hand, some cities known for their luxury homes actually saw a decline in prices.

Homes in Long Beach, California led this group of cities with prices falling 26.1 percent year-over-year in the first quarter. Prices in Washington, D.C. also saw a decline of 9.6 percent as did Fort Lauderdale, which saw prices falling 7.3 percent.

Developer plans new 2,558-acre community near Lake Nona

A planned 2,558-acre, mixed-use community going up near wants to change some of its plans.

The Starwood project, being developed by Beachline South Residential LLC on land south of State Road 528 and east of State Road 417, will add a high school and new signage into the mix of commercial uses and thousands of .

Applicant Dewberry Engineers Inc., which is the civil engineer and landscape architect for the project, sent a submittal to the city of Orlando to amend the future land-use map and planned-use development map. The request will be discussed at a June 19 municipal planning board meeting.

“The changes are mostly the result of an agreement reached with Orange County School Board regarding placement of a high school site within the development,” the project description reads. The changes are also a result of the road realignment on Dowden Road.

Beachline South Residential LLC, an entity of Palm Beach Gardens-based Land Innovations LLC, wants to build:

  • Office space on 1,680 acres
  • Commercial space on 81 acres
  • Public recreation and institutional areas consisting of 65 acres
  • Industrial space on 33 acres
  • Roughly 670 acres will be set aside for conservation.

The development team also includes Donal W. McIntosh Associates Inc. as the surveyor, VHB as the traffic consultant, Bio-Tech Consulting Inc. as the environmental consultant and Devo Engineering Co. as the geotechnical engineer.

Proposed home sites will range from 20-foot townhome lots to 70-foot estate lots, Mattamy Homes said in a news release. Communities amenities will include centers of different sizes throughout the community as well as a more than 20-mile system of interconnected walking trails and bike paths.

“Orlando continues to demonstrate that it is one of the strongest markets in the state of , as evidenced by the positive demographic trends including employment and population growth,” Mattamy Homes Orlando Division President Alex Martin previously said in a prepared statement. “We consider the Starwood Property an excellent complement to our existing Randal Park community and an opportunity to maintain our strong presence in this highly desirable and rapidly growing area of Central Florida.”

Jay Thompson, Land Innovations managing partner, had said the home prices would start at about $230,000 and go up to $1 million.

Tracking Spring Housing Trends

 

Things always warm up in the spring, but experts are detecting record-breaking heat this year—at least in the . Inventories are low, are flying off the market, and prices continue to rise, according to Realtor.com’s Monthly Housing Trends Report for April.

The report deemed this “the hottest spring housing market on record,” and a cool-down does not appear imminent.

“The dynamics of increased competition and buyer frustration are unlikely to change this spring,” according to analysts at Realtor.com. “In fact, the direction of the trend is pointing to a growing mismatch between the pool of prospective buyers and existing inventory.”

The hottest market in the nation is Midland, Texas, according to Realtor.com, which compared the 300 largest metro areas. Midland was followed by Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Massachusetts-New Hampshire; San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, California; Columbus, Ohio; and Vallejo-Fairfield, California. Four of the 10 hottest housing markets are located in California.

Nationally, the median list price was up 8 percent over the year in April and 3 percent since March. The national median listing price in April was $290,000.

Of the 300 largest metros in the nation, 180 posted yearly price gains in April, leading Realtor.com to say, “the damage has been done and the majority of markets are unlikely to see improvements any time soon.”

Homes continued to sell with increasing speed in April, with a 5 percent drop in the median age of inventory from last year and a 9 percent drop from the previous month. The median age of housing inventory in April was just 59 days.

On the other hand, the market experienced a hint of relief from the pervasive heat in April’s inventory count. While inventory declined 6 percent over the year in April, Realtor.com noted this was a slower pace than previously charted. Month-over-month, the market actually posted an increase in inventory, up 5 percent from March.

At the metro level, fewer markets are experiencing declining inventory, and fewer markets posted double-digit price gains in April.

The number of markets that have the “deadly combination” of double-digit price gains and declining inventory dropped from 115 in April 2017 to 62 in April 2018.

“Local dynamics show the heat is being spread out more broadly than before, lighting the spark in more areas but stopping the fire in others,” according to Realtor.com.

Homes sold fastest in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California, where the median age of inventory is just 19 days. The median age of inventory was shorter than 30 days in San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward California; Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington; Salt Lake City, Utah; and Ogden-Clearfield, Utah.

The oldest inventory is in Bangor, Maine, where the median age of inventory is 159.5 days.

10 Markets Where Home Prices are Stable

 

 

While most of the country’s housing market fight rising prices due to low inventory, several U.S. cities remain outside the trend, with home prices remaining flat, or in some cases even falling. According to Trulia, cities such as Austin, Texas; Sacramento, California; and Denver, Colorado have seen home prices stay flat or even fall year over year. Other cities in Trulia’s list of “10 Markets Where Home Prices Aren’t Rising” are San Antonio, Texas; Honolulu, Hawaii; Camden, New Jersey; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Houston and Dallas in Texas; and Sarasota, Florida.

San Antonio sits at the top of the list, with median home prices pegged at $269,499, a 5.4 percent decrease year over year, even with a job growth rate of 4.2 percent compared to the national average of job growth rate of 1.7 percent. Trulia estimates that despite job growth, home prices have fallen due to decreased wages in San Antonio by 2.6 percent, or simply, that are cheaper which hit the market within the last year.

Including San Antonio, Texas has four other cities on Trulia’s list: Dallas, Austin, and Houston. Austin saw a 3.4 percent decrease in the median home price year over year, down to $336,995. In Dallas, the median home price fell by 0.5 percent to $356,999. Houston, has the cheapest housing, with the median price at $299, 520, a 0.4 percent decrease year over year.

Other cities, such as Honolulu and Sacramento, despite being known for their notoriously high home prices, saw their market stabilize in the last year. Honolulu’s median home price was the highest on the list, at $630,000, but this is a 1.4 percent decrease from the previous year. Meanwhile, Sacramento, with a median home price of $429,000, saw no real change year over year, implying a stabilized market.

With a median listing price of $ 229,900, that remained unchanged over the past one year, Milwaukee was the only Midwest market on the list.