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Orlando-area home prices still on the rise

Home prices in the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metropolitan statistical area increased by 6.8% in November compared with the year-ago period, a new report from CoreLogic shows.

On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 0.8% in November compared with October.

Nationwide, home prices nationally year over year by 7% from November 2016 to November 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices increased by 1% in November compared with October, CoreLogic reports.

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.2% on a year-over-year basis from November 2017 to November 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease by 0.4% from November to December.

“Rising home prices are good news for home sellers, but add to the challenges that home buyers face,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Growing numbers of first-time buyers find limited for-sale inventory for lower-priced , leading to both higher rates of price growth for ‘starter’ homes and further erosion of .”

How Much Is Your Home’s Collateral Value?

Traditional Appraisal and Automated Valuation Models Don’t Always See Eye to Eye.

Recently the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced plans to waive the requirement of a professional appraisal on qualified purchase loans with a loan-to-value ratio at or below 80 percent.  For Fannie Mae, the new waiver option extends the Property Inspection Waiver program which was initially only applicable to refinancing loans. Similarly for Freddie Mac, the move has expanded lenders’ option to use automated evaluation tools, in lieu of a traditional appraisal, on both purchase and refinancing loans when working with its Loan Advisor Suite.

The GSE announcements came amid reports of a shortage of state-certified and licensed appraisers, especially in rural areas.  Nonetheless, the announcement was not without controversy. The Appraisal Institute (AI), the country’s largest trade association of real estate appraisers, has raised safety and soundness concerns of eliminating the appraisal requirement and is seeking a legislative rollback as it regards “the requirement for the completion of full appraisals to determine the true equity position of individual properties” fundamental to prudent risk management for the mortgage finance sector.  Under the federal banking regulations for real estate transactions, automated appraisal methods are generally reserved as a due diligence tool rather than as the primary valuation.

From a market economics perspective, a clash between automated evaluations and traditional appraisal seems rather inevitable, as advanced analytics and big data technology have steadfastly pushed the boundaries of collateral evaluation capabilities. Today’s automated valuation alternatives are often powered by large databases that can capture information on a given property as well as transaction records in and around the property in consideration.

 What Title of figure 2 is

In mortgage underwriting and securitization, collateral risk is typically quantified by loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. For purchase loans, the LTV ratios at origination are valued at the lesser of purchase price and appraised value. Since traditional appraisals infrequently come in below purchase price – about 10 percent of the time among loan applications or less than 4 percent among funded loans – a loan’s collateral risk measure is typically unaffected by appraisal.

But that could change quickly using an automated valuation model (AVM). Here is a quick look at the difference between traditional appraisal and AVMs, with implications for origination LTV. This blog analyzed a sample of recently appraised single-family purchased with mortgage financing for which a CoreLogic AVM value was also available.  The sample consists of approximately 190,000 purchase-loan properties appraised between July 2016 and June 2017.

Figure 1 shows the distribution of the properties’ traditional appraisal value relative to their purchase price. A majority of the appraisals were either exactly at the contract price (31.6 percent) or slightly above it (58.6 percent), leaving about 10 percent of the properties appraised below the purchase price. With very few appraisals on the low end, the purchase price effectively determined origination LTV during loan underwriting.

Figure 2 shows the distribution of the AVM values relative to the purchase price: 45.4 percent of the AVM values were at or above the contract price, while 54.6 percent were below it. Compared with traditional appraisals, the AVM values were more symmetrically distributed about the purchase price but with thicker tails on both ends (that is, greater uncertainty in the valuation). For the 5-in-9 properties with an AVM value below the purchase price, the LTV ratios for these loans would be higher had the AVM valuations been used instead of a traditional appraisal.

Since the odds of an AVM coming in below the purchase price were 55-45 in this analysis, compared with 10-90 for traditional appraisals, AVM usage will increase the underwriting LTV on a much larger number of loans. And the ‘fatter tail’ of the distribution below the contract price means that the upward LTV adjustment will more often be larger than for a traditional appraisal.

While the industry may debate which valuation method is likely more accurate than the other, or more importantly, which is more useful than the other in predicting default risk and loan performance, there is one thing we can all agree on: Lenders and mortgage investors need reliable information about a loan’s and portfolio’s collateral risk to make informed underwriting and investment decisions.

[1] The property must be a single-family, primary residence or second home with a value less than $1 million; additional restrictions apply.

[2] See the Interagency Advisory on the Availability of Appraisers, issued by the federal banking regulators on May 31, 2017. https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2017/nr-ia-2017-60a.pdf

[3] The Appraisal Institute press release, “Appraisal Institute Joins 35 Groups Seeking to Halt Appraisal Waivers,” September 7, 2017.

[4] See the Interagency Appraisal and Evaluation Guidelines 2010, which was originally issued in 1994 by the FDIC, OCC, FBR, and OTC, in accordance with Title XI of the 1989 FIRREA.

[5] A recent study by researchers at Fannie Mae reported less than 4 percent of the purchase loans guaranteed by the agency during 1992-2015 had an appraisal below the purchase price. The study can be accessed at http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/datanotes/pdf/working-paper-102816.pdf

[6] The AVM valuation date (or, AVM “as of” date) did not fall exactly on the appraisal date, but ranged from 15 days to about 3 ½ months after the appraisal date.

[7] Because the data set did not include the buyers’ loan amount, analysis by LTV ratio could not be performed. It remains to be seen whether the distribution of AVM valuations or appraisal is affected by leverage. However, if the valuations are unbiased, we should not expect leverage to affect the valuation outcome.

Cities Higher at Risk for Bubble

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Are we in a housing bubble? Whenever house prices increase faster than general inflation for a year or two, we hear that question more often. Can the market sustain the new higher price, or has something artificially or temporarily inflated these prices?

Nationally, over the past five years, the increase in house prices has outpaced inflation by 34 percent cumulatively since 2012 (figure 1). Though noteworthy, the increase is less than half the pace seen between 1997 and 2006, which saw house price growth outpace inflation by 87 percent.

Locally, there are areas of concern

Of course, real estate is local, so we should also ask if there are any regional housing bubbles. We examined the same two key factors to measure the likelihood that a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is in a bubble, and we offer a method that ranks the largest MSAs against each other based on these factors.

We began with the 37 largest MSAs and looked at the real increase in house prices since their lowest point following the crisis (the trough) and our measure. We then sum the rankings and re-rank the MSAs most likely to be in a bubble, our “bubble watch” rank.

The top 10 MSAs are ranked high on both home price growth and lack of affordability measures. But further down the list, the rank could be driven by one measure or the other.

Orlando tenants feel pinch of rent spikes

Metro Orlando rents spiked by as much as 15 percent during a year-long period when rents nationally declined, making Central Florida less affordable than some California markets, including Sacramento, a new report shows.

The biggest jump in rental rates hit smaller units. An influx of new complexes filled with one-bedroom units pushed up the average rental on those apartments by 15 percent from a year ago and 5 percent from a month earlier, reaching an average $1,170, according to research released Tuesday by the analytics firm Zumper. Household income in Metro rose 1.2 percent during that period, the federal government reported.

Rosalinda Hernandez, 60, works as a bill collector and lives with her mother in the east Orlando area. She said she keeps a close watch on the apartment market and finds no property managers offering discounts.

“If you don’t have someone to live with, you can’t make it,” she said.

For landlords, the region has been identified as a standout for its rising rents.

Brian Alford, market economist for the CoStar Group, said Orlando’s annual rent growth is one of the best in the nation. The four-county area had fourth highest year-over-year rent gains among the nation’s top 54 metro areas, he said.

“Orlando has seen rent growth across both luxury and workforce housing, which is not the norm,” he said.

The boost in prices repositions the Metro Orlando area from a region considered affordable to one where renters have to search harder to find deals. Apartments with two bedrooms rose at about half the rate of one-bedroom rentals and averaged $1,290 in October.Universal Orlando announces two new hotels

While rents in Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Lake counties rose by double-digit amounts from a year earlier, rents nationally declined by about 1 percent.

The Orlando area’s rent hikes come even as thousands of new units are rolling onto the market with 4,500 new apartments added in October, according to ALN Apartment Data.

Within the region, Clermont appeared to have one of the lower occupancy rates with less than 90 percent of units filled while the Eustis/Leesburg and DeLand areas appeared to have a shortage of rentals with virtually no units available in September, ALN reported. In the University of Central Florida area, east Orlando and Oviedo had an occupancy rate of 94 percent.

Tenants renting houses in the Orlando region did not escape the spike with those rents rising more than 4 percent in September, which was higher than the increases of 3.5 percent nationally, according to Morningstar. Higher rents don’t seem to be scaring away tenants with vacancy rates of 4.8 percent in September, which was down slightly from a year earlier. Nationally, vacancy rates for rental houses were 5.9 percent.

Looking ahead, conditions are unlikely to improve for renters with an influx of prospective renters following hurricanes, said Ryan Coon, an author who writes on landlord issues..

“We’re continuing the see rents climb in Orlando, especially as the housing market remains tight post-Irma,” Coon said. “This trend bodes well for landlords looking to invest in the area.”

 

Orlando-area home sales down despite record job growth

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/94337272-132.html

Home prices and sales in the core Orlando market were down in July from the month before during what is usually the peak summer buying season.

The midpoint price for an area that includes mostly Orange and Seminole counties was $220,000 in July, down from $222,500 the prior month, according to a report released Tuesday by Regional Realtor Association.

More dramatic than the slight softening in prices was the 14 percent, month-over-month drop in sales to 3,347 for July. Typically sales boom as families relocate prior to the start of the school year.

The association cited a slim inventory of listings as the culprit for what has been a less-than-spectacular summer.

“Would-be first-time homebuyers are being kept on the sidelines by limited inventory and rising prices,” said Bruce Elliott, president of the association and broker associate with Regal R. E. Professionals LLC. “However, rising prices have slowed some of the investor activity, which could mean slightly less competition for at the lower end of the market.”

Compared with a year ago, Orlando’s median home price for July was $14,000 higher.

Orlando real estate Serina Marshall said millennials in particular face a challenge as wages stagnate and prices rise for a group of would-be buyers who are affected by student loan debts, too. Renters in that age bracket also deal with rent spikes and find themselves with few options at lease renewal time.

“Those prices are being jacked up a lot and people are being forced to move out of their apartments to find something more affordable,” said Marshall, an agent with Re/Max Town Centre.

What has not grown from a year ago is the pace of monthly sales, which held flat from a year earlier. The flat sales growth comes despite record job growth for Orlando, which averaged 150 new jobs daily during a 12-month period that ended in June, according to a review of federal jobs numbers.

The headwinds facing newly employed Central Floridians are home prices rising 6.8 percent during a year-long period in which wages rose about 1 percent, according to the federal housing department. Making ownership an even more distant dream, financing has become costlier. July buyers secured average interest rates of 4.01 percent, which was up about a half point from a year ago and up slightly from a month earlier.

Within the four counties that make up Metro Orlando, only Lake showed strong sales growth in July from July 2016. Sales there were up more than 12 percent, while sales in Orange and Osceola counties were largely flat and Seminole was down more than 8 percent.

U.S. Mortgage Rates Move Lower in Mid-July

According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average U.S. mortgage rate dropped in mid-July, after two straight weeks of increases.

Sean Becketti, chief economist at Freddie Mac, “Continued economic uncertainty and weak inflation data pushed rates lower this week. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points this week. The 30-year mortgage rate moved with Treasury yields, dropping 7 basis points to 3.96 percent.”

Freddie Mac News Facts:

  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.23 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.29 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.75 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.21 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.28 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.78 percent.

Here Are 2017’s Best and Worst Cities to Retire

We work hard during our careers to enjoy a comfortable retirement, and for many of us, that means settling down someplace where our nest eggs can go the furthest. But for some folks, finding an affordable place to retire is a matter of basic survival. More than 40% of households aged 56 to 64 have no retirement savings to show for, or so states the Economic Policy Institute. And even among older workers who are saving, confidence about retiring comfortably is declining. With that in mind, WalletHub recently did a review of the top cities to retire in this year, as well as the least desirable cities for retirees. Here’s what they came up with.

What makes for a happy retirement?

Though money isn’t everything when it comes to retirement, it’s a big factor to consider. Even if your tastes are modest, and you’re naturally not such a big spender, you’re bound to encounter certain expenses outside your control. Take healthcare, for example, which, according to recent projections, could cost the average healthy 65-year-old couple today over $400,000 in retirement. It therefore stands to reason that finding a city with a relatively low cost of living can be crucial to your overall happiness as a senior.

But while is one of the metrics WalletHub reviewed in its recent study, it’s not the only one. Factors such as recreation, senior services and population, hospital systems, and even climate were all considered in compiling this list.

So which cities offer the best overall quality of life for retirees? Among the 150 cities reviewed by WalletHub, here are the top 10:

Rank: Best Overall City
1 , FL
2 Tampa, FL
3 Miami, FL
4 Scottsdale, AZ
5 Atlanta, GA
6 Salt Lake City, UT
7 Honolulu, HI
8 Denver, CO
9 Austin, TX
10 Las Vegas, NV

DATA SOURCE: WALLETHUB.

Keep in mind that these 10 cities aren’t necessarily the most affordable. In fact, some, like Honolulu and Denver, scored relatively low on affordability alone. If a low cost of living is paramount in your mind, here are the top 10 cities you might consider as a retiree:

Rank: Most Affordable City
1 Laredo, TX
2 Brownsville, TX
3 St. Petersburg, FL
4 Montgomery, AL
5 San Antonio, TX
6 Memphis, TN
7 Tampa, FL
8 Orlando, FL
9 Lubbock, TX
10 Knoxville, TN

DATA SOURCE: WALLETHUB.

Of course, what you gain in affordability, you might forgo elsewhere. Take Laredo, Texas, the cheapest city for retirees. Though you might snag housing and groceries on the cheap, Laredo scored pretty low with regard to activities and amenities, and it came in nearly last on healthcare.

So which cities might you try to avoid as a senior? Here’s what the list of the 10 worst retiree states looks like:

Rank: Worst Overall City
1 Newark, NJ
2 Providence, RI
3 San Bernardino, CA
4 Worcester, MA
5 Detroit, MI
6 Fresno, CA
7 Stockton, CA
8 Modesto, CA
9 Fontana, CA
10 Rancho Cucamonga, CA

DATA SOURCE: WALLETHUB.

Most of the cities on this list scored relatively low in terms of affordability, and all landed at the bottom of the heap with regard to healthcare. Interestingly, none of the cities with the highest cost of living, including New York, New York; San Jose, California; and San Francisco, California, came even close to making the bottom 10 overall, which goes to show that money shouldn’t be the only factor to consider when determining where to live as a senior.

Finding the right place for your senior years

Clearly, the place you spend your days in retirement will have an impact on not just your budget but your everyday quality of life. If you’re not sure where to go once you stop working, try asking yourself the following questions:

  • How much do I want to spend on housing, transportation, and essentials? The more you fork over to cover your basic costs, the less cash you’ll have available for leisure. On the other hand, if you choose a city that offers much in the way of free entertainment, it might be worth the higher rent or mortgage. Furthermore, don’t just consider how much you want to spend but also what you can afford to spend. You might dream of retiring in Honolulu, but if your nest egg won’t hold up there, you’ll need to pick someplace with a lower cost of living.
  • How’s my health? Though having good access to healthcare is important for all retirees, if you have a known medical issue, you’ll need to pay even closer attention to how local hospitals and doctors are ranked. The last thing you want as a senior is to have to travel long distances to receive quality medical care.
  • How important is it for me to live near family? Your family might serve as a key social outlet and support system in retirement, so be sure to factor in proximity to children, siblings, and grandkids when deciding where to live. If you’re not willing to relocate to get closer (say, your family lives in an expensive city or someplace whose climate isn’t ideal), consider the cost of traveling from your city of choice to where your loved ones live, because you don’t want to grapple with perpetually pricey air fares when you’re stuck on a fixed income.

Choosing the right place to retire is crucial to your overall happiness. The more thought you put into where you retire, the more content you’re likely to be down the line.

First look at 2017 real estate market

ORLANDO,Floridamoney – Oct. 19, 2016 – The 2017 home buying season will be see a large increase in first-time homebuyers, according to realtor.com’s latest Active Home Shopper Report, and an increased demand for suburban homes. However, buyers will also face greater affordability challenges.

The study, based on September survey data of active shoppers on realtor.com, provides insight into future home buying trends in 2017 by analyzing responses from consumers who plan to purchase homes in the spring or summer of 2017.

According to the report, the percentage of first-time homebuyers could rise as high as 52 percent of all buyers, and increase from 33 percent in 2016.

But this boost in first-time buyers will also make affordability, downpayments and credit scores a challenge, and those issues could become the market’s top problem next year. Currently, the limited inventory of listings is the top barrier to homeownership.

In general, suburban homes are preferred by 43 percent of first-time homebuyers surveyed, likely due to their desire for safe neighborhoods, privacy and the needs of growing families, according to realtor.com researchers.

Top 5 predictions for 2017

1. First-time homebuyers could make up a majority of 2017 homebuyers
According to the survey, first time homebuyers make up 52 percent of prospective buyers looking to purchase in 2017. Millennials lead the pack with 61 percent of potential first-time buyers under age 35. Top reasons cited by millennials for buying: getting married or moving in with a partner, growing tired of their current living space, and planning to increase family size.

“This represents an ‘Oh, shift’ moment in housing,” says Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for realtor.com. “With so many first-time buyers in the market, competition will be even fiercer next year for affordable starter homes in the suburbs. Those looking to buy may want to consider a winter home purchase in order to avoid bidding wars and higher prices spurred by a potential increase in millennial buyers.”

2. Affordability and mortgage qualifying expected to replace lack of inventory as largest barrier to homeownership
In 2016, 40 percent of home shoppers cited lack of inventory as the largest barrier to homeownership, but realtor.com reports this will potentially shift to affordability and mortgage qualification issues as more first-time home buyers enter the market. Of first time buyers planning to purchase next spring, 37 percent said their largest impediment to homeownership is the downpayment, and 30 percent said finding a house within their budget.

3. Safe neighborhoods, more living space and larger yards top list of key home attributes
Safety, more living space and larger yards as key features is consistent with their top goals of buying: attaining privacy and addressing the needs of their families. A third top objective of first-time buyers is to make a financial investment that will grow over time.

As millennials marry and move in with partners, reasons to purchase are driven by actual or planned growth in their families, and they show strong preference for single-family homes (39 percent) or townhomes (34 percent), and away from multi-family homes (15 percent), condos (10 percent) or mobile homes (2 percent).

4. Competition for the suburbs should heat up
With families and safety on the brain, it’s no surprise that first time homebuyers identified the suburbs as their No. 1 preferred location. In fact, 50 percent of all respondents identified suburban areas as their preferred location. For boomers, their desire for the suburbs can likely be attributed to their desire to be close to family and friends.

Data also show younger homebuyers are more likely than their older counterparts to prefer urban living, the second-most common location preference among millennials after suburbs.

5. Spring and summer will continue to be 2017’s hottest time to buy a house
A majority of all survey respondents were beginning the housing search at the time of the survey and planned to purchase in seven months or longer, indicating spring and summer will continue as the top seasons to buy and sell homes: 73 percent of respondents had been considering homeownership for less than three months and did not expect to purchase a home immediately.