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In sign of real-estate slowdown, Orlando home sales are down and listings are up

’s red-hot real estate market may be cooling off. The November real estate report from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association released Monday shows home sales are down and the supply of houses on the market is up as interest raise continue to increase.

Home sales fell 6.9 percent during the month to 2,575 while the number of grew to a 3.3-month supply, the biggest inventory since September 2017.

Real estate agents and analysts say increasing interest rates are giving buyers pause. The average interest rate for area homebuyers in November increased to 4.97 percent, up from 3.97 percent during the same month last year.

“There has been a shock in how quickly interest rates have gone up,” said Eric Soto, a real estate and co-owner of TC Orlando Homes based in Altamonte Springs.

It mirrors trends nationally, where both sales and price growth is slowing, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The number of U.S. homes sold in October dropped 8.9 percent compared with a year ago, the agency’s most recent report said.

In Metro Orlando in November, the average price of a single-family home in the area increased to $251,000, up $1,100 from the month before. Rising average prices combined with slower sales are usually an indication of a decrease in sales of less-expensive homes.

But though there are more homes available, it’s still far from a buyers market, Soto said.

“There may be more homes than there were a few months ago but only a few hundred,” he said.

Several times in the past 18 months, the Federal Reserve has raised the key lending rate that helps determine the rate on 30-year fixed mortgages. Only recently have those policymakers indicated that they may hold off on more hikes.

economist Jeff Tucker said home supply is up in many markets across the country. But he, too, wouldn’t call it a huge increase.

“This is certainly not looking like an inventory spike,” he said. “It’s just coming up from really low levels.”ADVERTISING

A five- or six- month supply of homes is a good equilibrium between buyers and sellers, Tucker said. Even at a 3.3-month supply, sellers still have control over the market, he said.

“It’s a bit of a breather for buyers, though,” Tucker said. “But there is a downside with interest rates rising.”

A year after Hurricane Irma, home sales are improving — if you can find a house

Tucker said rising interest rates may delay buyers from making purchases but doesn’t stop them completely.

What it may impact is affordability. Buyers can expect to pay about $148 more per month on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with interest rates increasing from 3.97 to 4.97 percent, according to Bankrate.

Alex Vastardis, a Dr. Phillips area real estate agent with Coldwell Banker, said there was a slowdown in November, particularly for homes for less than $300,000. However, homes in Windermere, Dr. Phillips and Winter Garden are still in high demand. New homes are still selling well too, he said.

But since real estate decisions are often dictated by other factors such as new jobs or relocations, Vastardis said he still has a lot of customers coming into his office looking for new homes.

“December is usually a pretty positive month because people want to sell their homes or get into a new one before the end of the year,” Vastardis said.

November Home Market Statistics

By Cindy Barth  – Editor, Orlando Business Journal Dec 17, 2018, 11:13am EST

Home sales nationwide fell in November at the fastest rate in two years while the number of listed increased at the fastest rate in three years,

The latest housing report from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association is a bit of good news/not so good news for the region as far as activity that took place in November.

First, the good news: The inventory of homes available for purchase in the Orlando area has experienced its first year-over-year increase since July 2015, with the overall inventory in November 1.7% higher than November 2017. In addition, the overall median price of Orlando homes sold in November is $233,100, 3.6% above the November 2017 median price of $224,995 and 1.8% above the October 2018 median price of $229,000.

“The tide has turned. Sellers are now competing for buyers, but they haven’t all realized it yet,”  Broker with Keller Williams Realty 

The bad news: Sales of single-family homes — 1,978 — in November decreased by 8.9% compared to November 2017, ORRA said.

“This slight rise in inventory can be attributed to a combination of both slowing sales and a bump in new listings, which increased by 4.5% compared to this same time last year,” said ORRA President Lou Nimkoff. “Factor in expected increases in interest rates that traditionally dampen sales, and we anticipate prospective homebuyers enjoying bolstered inventory levels throughout the upcoming year.”

Current inventory combined with the current pace of sales created a 3.3-month supply of homes in Orlando for November.

Price Pressure Fueled by Limited Supply

 

 

 

CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) has exceeded the pre-crisis peak and continues to grow with a strong and steady pace. With demand strong and inventory thin, the share of selling for the list price or more has also returned to pre-bust levels.

Share of SalesWith demand outweighing supply, homes are more likely to sell above the asking price. Figure 1 shows the share of homes that sold at a price above, equal to or below the list price. [1] The share of homes selling at or above list price has returned to mid-2005 levels. In Q2 2018 that share represented more than 40 percent of total sales – almost triple the level during the trough in January 2008. The share of homes selling for less than list price has made up the majority of sales over the past 10 years. Regardless of market conditions, there are always highly motivated sellers – including those who begin with unrealistic expectations – willing to drop their price.

Share of Sales

Housing markets are different across the nation. Therefore, sales and listing patterns also vary geographically. Figure 2 shows the share of homes that sold at, above, or below their list prices in 20 CBSAs during July 2018. San Francisco had the largest share of homes – 81 percent – that sold for at least the list price. Seattle and Minneapolis followed with 65 and 58 percent selling for the list price or more, respectively. Houston and Miami had the lowest share – 27 and 20 percent – of homes selling at or above the list price in July 2018. San Francisco was one of the metros with the highest home price growth in the U.S. in July. According to the CoreLogic HPI, home prices in San Francisco increased 11 percent year over year in July. On the other hand, Miami had a moderate annual home price increase of 4.6 percent in July.

Months Supply vs Service Premium

Price pressures rapidly increase as supply drops below 3 months. Figure 3 shows the price premium or discount and months’ supply for over 200 CBSAs in July 2018. In San Francisco and San Jose, where months’ supply was at 2 and 2.2, respectively, home buyers had to pay 9.7 and 5.4 percent more than the asking price on average. On the other hand, markets like Miami and Naples, where months’ supply are sufficient at 10 and 12, home buyers were able to negotiate below asking prices, with average discounts of 6.5 and 7.5 percent, respectively, in July 2018.

Note: The U.S. statistics are based on data for 65 CBSAs. Each of these CBSAs has at least 50 percent coverage since 2000. CoreLogic MLS data coverage usually increases over time, which might also contribute to inventory increases.

[1] Figures 1 and 2 use 65 CBSAs to aggregate national level statistics. The inventory has not been adjusted for growth in the number of households over time. As the number of households increases over time, the ‘equivalent’ level of inventory should rise as well.

© 2018 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

Happy Sellers and Buyers,and Customers

As a Real Estate  for over 28 years, my ultimate goal is to let my experience and knowledge help my customers realize their goal, which is to sell or buy there home.  Do I get asked how  I differ from all the other agent’s out there? Well, the answer is my experience and my past record does speak for itself not only in what I do but how I do it! Most agents will do the minimum marketing to save a dollar in their pockets and never think “out of the Box”. My team is taught to always find new ways to get every unique customer’s home out to the largest population of potential buyers and sellers by concentrating not on the cost but to find the qualified buyers and sellers. All agents will do the general work as to put you in MLS (Multiple Listing Service} and send out postcards but what else do they generally do? Well if your working with our team you not only get the Standard marketing you get Worldwide Marketing with over 86 different websites as well as we as a team call your neighbors and our database of over 14,000 people to let them know you have placed your home on the market or you are looking for a particular home. In short, we always go above and beyond to help our customers not only get what they want but to save as much money as possible in the process and make everything very smooth all the way through closing.

https://youtu.be/aZ7Dc9cMHGU

 

What to Expect in the Homebuying Season

What to Expect in the Homebuying Season

Homebuyers will need to be on their toes this homebuying season if they are to snag their dream abode if the typical time taken to sell a home in 2017 is any indication. According to a report by Zillow, sold faster than ever in 2017, with a typical median-priced house flying off the market in 81 days. And this has been the case for the past three years, the report said citing data that indicated homes sold slightly faster at 80 days in 2016.

In 2017, the fastest-selling market was San Jose, California, with the typical home sold in 41 days. Homes in Miami, on the other hand, took 110 days to sell in both years, the report indicated.

What do these numbers indicate for 2018? “As demand has outpaced supply in the over the past three years, buying a home has become an exercise in speed and agility,” said Aaron Terrazas, Senior Economist at Zillow. “This is shaping up to be another competitive home shopping season for buyers, who may have to linger on the market until they find the right home but then sprint across the finish line once they do. Being prepared—working with a great , getting financing pre-approved—can help a buyer make a stand-out offer.”

According to an earlier Zillow report on Group Consumer Housing trends, a typical buyer spends around four months searching for a home and makes two offers before successfully closing on a home. But the latest data indicates that homes sold in lesser time than that in 2016 and 2017, making it imperative for homebuyers to be ready to move quickly when they find a home they want to purchase, the report said.

The report also indicated that homes sold the fastest in June when the typical U.S. home sold in 73 days flat. In San Jose, the report said, homes sold fastest last year in October within just 39 days of being listed.

Orlando-area home prices still on the rise

Home prices in the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metropolitan statistical area increased by 6.8% in November compared with the year-ago period, a new report from CoreLogic shows.

On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 0.8% in November compared with October.

Nationwide, home prices nationally year over year by 7% from November 2016 to November 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices increased by 1% in November compared with October, CoreLogic reports.

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.2% on a year-over-year basis from November 2017 to November 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease by 0.4% from November to December.

“Rising home prices are good news for home sellers, but add to the challenges that home buyers face,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Growing numbers of first-time buyers find limited for-sale inventory for lower-priced , leading to both higher rates of price growth for ‘starter’ homes and further erosion of .”

Orlando-area home sales down despite record job growth

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/94337272-132.html

Home prices and sales in the core Orlando market were down in July from the month before during what is usually the peak summer buying season.

The midpoint price for an area that includes mostly Orange and Seminole counties was $220,000 in July, down from $222,500 the prior month, according to a report released Tuesday by Regional Realtor Association.

More dramatic than the slight softening in prices was the 14 percent, month-over-month drop in sales to 3,347 for July. Typically sales boom as families relocate prior to the start of the school year.

The association cited a slim inventory of listings as the culprit for what has been a less-than-spectacular summer.

“Would-be first-time homebuyers are being kept on the sidelines by limited inventory and rising prices,” said Bruce Elliott, president of the association and broker associate with Regal R. E. Professionals LLC. “However, rising prices have slowed some of the investor activity, which could mean slightly less competition for at the lower end of the market.”

Compared with a year ago, Orlando’s median home price for July was $14,000 higher.

Orlando real estate Serina Marshall said millennials in particular face a challenge as wages stagnate and prices rise for a group of would-be buyers who are affected by student loan debts, too. Renters in that age bracket also deal with rent spikes and find themselves with few options at lease renewal time.

“Those prices are being jacked up a lot and people are being forced to move out of their apartments to find something more affordable,” said Marshall, an agent with Re/Max Town Centre.

What has not grown from a year ago is the pace of monthly sales, which held flat from a year earlier. The flat sales growth comes despite record job growth for Orlando, which averaged 150 new jobs daily during a 12-month period that ended in June, according to a review of federal jobs numbers.

The headwinds facing newly employed Central Floridians are home prices rising 6.8 percent during a year-long period in which wages rose about 1 percent, according to the federal housing department. Making ownership an even more distant dream, financing has become costlier. July buyers secured average interest rates of 4.01 percent, which was up about a half point from a year ago and up slightly from a month earlier.

Within the four counties that make up Metro Orlando, only Lake showed strong sales growth in July from July 2016. Sales there were up more than 12 percent, while sales in Orange and Osceola counties were largely flat and Seminole was down more than 8 percent.

Florida’s Housing Market Continues to Show Rising Prices in Feb. 2017

ORLANDO, Fla. – Florida’s housing market continued to report a tight supply of   and rising median prices in February, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. Sales of single-family homes statewide remained relatively flat last month, totaling 18,033, down only 0.5 percent compared to February 2016.

“Florida’s is growing, with more jobs being created,” said 2017 Top Awarded Allyn Maycumber with Keller Williams Advantage in Lake Nona. “And a growing economy boosts the state’s housing sector as well. However, many local markets are reporting low inventory of for-sale homes at a time of increasing buyer demand. For sellers, it’s a good time to list their homes, as they continue to get more of their original asking price at the closing table. In February, sellers of existing single-family homes received 95.8 percent (median percentage) of their original listing price, while those selling townhouse-condo properties received 94.7 percent.

“In these kinds of market conditions, serious home buyers must be prepared to act fast, and work closely with a local Realtor to find the right home for their needs and their budget.”

The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes last month was $225,000, up 12.5 percent from the previous year, according to data from Florida Realtors research department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. The statewide median price for townhouse-condo properties in February was $167,500, up 11.7 percent over the year-ago figure. February marked the 63rd month in a row that statewide median prices for both sectors rose year-over-year. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

According to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), the national median sales price for existing single-family homes in January 2016 was $230,400, up 7.3 percent from the previous year; the national median existing condo price was $217,400. In California, the statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in January was $489,580; in Massachusetts, it was $330,000; in Maryland, it was $261,868; and in New York, it was $250,000.

Looking at Florida’s townhouse-condo market, statewide closed sales totaled 7,949 last month, up 4.1 percent compared to February 2016. Closed sales data reflected fewer short sales and cash-only sales last month: Short sales for townhouse-condo properties declined 39.6 percent while short sales for single-family homes also dropped 39.6 percent. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.

“Florida’s market for existing single-family homes in February continued to perform in line with what we’ve seen over the past year and a half,” said Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor. “Due primarily to fewer distressed properties on the market, sales of single-family homes edged down. However, non-distressed sales of single-family homes were up almost 10 percent year-over-year, showing that the traditional market – as opposed to the niche distressed market – is healthy and continues to grow.

“Meanwhile, Florida’s condo and townhouse sales are off to very good start in 2017. Coming off a 6.2 percent year-over-year increase in January, condo and townhouse sales rose 4.1 percent year-over-year in February. For perspective, the last time statewide condo and townhouse sales rose on a year-over-year basis for two consecutive months was in August and September of 2015.”

For the second consecutive month, inventory remained at a tight 4.2-months’ supply in February for single-family homes, and was at a 6.4-months’ supply for townhouse-condo properties, according to Florida Realtors.

According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.17 percent in February 2016, up significantly from the 3.66 percent average recorded during the same month a year earlier.

Home prices rise as listings disappear

Scant listings of houses for sale in the core Orlando home prices rise by 2.6 percent during the one-month period of February, according to a new report by Orlando Regional Realtor Association.

The midpoint sale price in February for an area that includes mostly Orange and Seminole counties was $205,000, which was up about 11 percent from a year earlier.

Despite limited options for buyers, rising prices and interest rates edging up, association members closed 2,423 sales in February. Sales were up 10 percent from a month earlier and basically flat from a year ago.

“We are headed into peak home-buying season with high demand but significantly fewer on the market compared to last year,” said Orlando association President Bruce Elliott, an with Regal R.E. Professionals LLC.

Central Florida’s job and population growth has been depleting the available listings, even as the appetite for rentals has grown in recent years.

One Orlando-area real estate agent said he listed a three-bedroom, one-bath house without central heat/air in the west Winter Park area for $219,000. Immediately, he said, seven investors offered cash with the hope of tearing it down to make way for new townhomes.

During February, Osceola had the greatest increase in sales among Central counties with 10 percent growth from a year ago. Orange County also had an increase in sales during the 12-month period while Lake and Seminole counties both experienced declines.

Orlando’s housing market wades further into 2017 with markedly fewer houses listed . Listings in February were down 21 percent from a year earlier and the area had a 3.5-month supply — about a month less than February 2015.

Overall for the area in February, houses sold within 69 days of hitting the market — almost two weeks faster than sales a year ago.

Looking ahead, families may be in trouble as orlando home prices rise because association members reported 5,849 pending sales. That is an increase of 8 percent from a year ago and 14 percent from a month ago. Orlando’s pipeline of pending sales in February had about 400 more houses and condos than it did last February.

Elliott said current market conditions make it particularly conducive to sell for owners who have been contemplating getting into the market. And for buyers, he added, getting professional help structuring offers is especially key leading into the most active sales season of the year.

Orlando ranks No. 2 in Forbes’ fastest-growing cities list

PHOTO VIA JOE SHLABOTNIK ON FLICKR.

  • Photo via Joe Shlabotnik on Flickr.

The results are in: Orlando is one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the country.
According to Forbes, Orlando is No. 2 in the country, just behind Cape Coral, in its ranking of the country’s fastest-growing metropolitan cities.

 Every year, Forbes compiles a list of America’s fastest-growing cities in an effort to give a “holistic picture” of places on the upswing.
 The magazine uses data provided by Moody’s Analytics to compare the country’s 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas in measures such as population, employment, wages, economic output and home values, coming up with a ranking of the top 25.

cities dominate the list with nine out of 25, more than any other state. Six of those cities are included in the list’s top 10.
The Cape Coral-Fort Myers area took the top spot, with a population increase of 3.39 percent and a projected growth rate of 3.61 percent for 2017.
The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford area ranks No. 2 on the list, but was No. 1 in job growth for 2016 at 4.57 percent. That growth is expected to decrease a bit this year however, with a projected rate of 3.54 percent.
The Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach area, Jacksonville, the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton area, and the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area also made the top 10.