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New Canaveral Terminal

 

 

Port Canaveral’s plans for a new $150 million cruise terminal The money. are underway, and one major aspect of the project is going smoothly.

The Canaveral Port Authority on Dec. 5 approved a project financing plan that includes a mixture of bonds, bank loans, a line of credit, as well as funds from the terminal’s future tenant, Carnival Cruise Line. The terminal is part of a larger agreement with Carnival that includes the cruise liner operating for another 25 years at Port Canaveral.

The Central Florida sea hub’s Cruise Terminal 3 is set to be complete by June 2020, with kicking off in first-quarter 2019. The new terminal, designed to accommodate the latest cruise ship sizes, will be roughly 190,000 square feet with a minimum 1,800-space parking garage and additional infrastructure and utility upgrades.

“We are going to borrow some and pay some down with the cruise line help. It’s a very good investment for the port and the surrounding area,” said Bob Harvey, a port commissioner, during the Dec. 5 meeting.

In addition, the port shared a brief update on when contracts regarding the project will be awarded.

A $75 million contract to oversee the terminal and roadwork construction will be awarded in January. According to the port’s contact page, the work includes the new Terminal 3 building, launch pad entrance hall, provisioning warehouse building with chiller yard, bag drop/crew building and roads/civil/utility work. The new terminal will prepare he world’s second-busiest cruise port for more future growth in passenger traffic.

Passenger counts at the port increased by 7.7 percent over last year to 4.56 million passengers — a gain of 327,489 passengers. Also, cargo tonnage coming through the port increased 6.9 percent to 6.4 million tons

Both are vital metrics to the port’s success that has major impacts on the Central Florida region’s ability to be both a tourist destination and a hub for bulk commodities that service several industries.

“These historic achievements are a fan formation that the course we’ve charted for our port is a good one,” said Port CEO John Murray, in a prepared statement. “We’re continuing to look ahead to strong organic growth, sound planning and a clear focus on creating a best-in-class experience for every customer.”

Tavistock to start construction on its 24,000-acre Sunbridge

Tavistock Sunbridge

  Development Co. LLC has beefed up plans for a portion of its 24,000-acre, cross-county Sunbridge development.

Tavistock may start as early as February on the 2,700-acre Osceola County piece of its future development that crosses the line into Orange County, a spokeswoman told Orlando Journal. The developer is seeking approvals from Osceola County on an updated development plan for that portion of a total of 19,560 acres in future development after winning approvals for a different plan in July 2017.

The current requests before the Osceola County development review committee are for:

  • 3,198 single-family
  • 1,434 apartments
  • 2.5 million square feet of office space
  • 180,430 square feet of civic space
  • 450 hotel rooms
  • Two schools

The county’s development review committee will make a recommendation on the proposal at a Dec. 5 meeting. Approvals typically take months or years as plans can be stalled, delayed or changed for various reasons.

The Osceola County property is south of the Orange County line, east of Narcoossee Road, west of the Econlockhatchee Swamp Preservation Area and north of Nova Road. Homestead, Penn.-based GAI Consultants Inc. is the master planner.

Master infrastructure construction was expected to start sometime in 2018, Richard Levey, managing director of Levey Consulting, which was representing Tavistock Development on approvals for the development, previously told OBJ. Levey couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

Meanwhile, construction on Sunbridge, one of the largest developments acreage-wise in Central , is expected to continue through 2055. Orange County’s 5,000-acre portion of Sunbridge is slated to include more than 7,300 homes, 490 hotel rooms, 6.3 million square feet of office and retail space, and 2.9 million square feet of industrial space.

The land is owned by entities related to The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to Osceola County documents.

For developments such as Sunbridge to find success, they require enormous amounts of capital and time to create a sense of place to attract residents, said local land expert Trevor Hall Jr., who isn’t involved in the project. Developers need to build medical, education, industrial and office buildings to serve future residents. “Whatever employment you can generate then feeds absorption of the housing projects.”

Sunbridge is expected to create big business and job opportunities similar to Tavistock’s in southeast Orlando. The 17-square-mile Lake Nona boasts more than 11,000 residents, 5,000 employees in the 650-acre biotech hub, and 14,000-plus students at its schools.

End of year Housing Report

 

 

Trends in Real Estate

Check out this Report for full details:

https://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/marketpulse/17-mktplse-1118-00-the-marketpulse-vol-7-issue-11-november-2018-screen-112718.pdf

 

 

U.S. Economic Outlook: November 2018
Payment-to-rent affects tenure choice and presages future home price growth By Frank E. Nothaft
Mortgage rates rose in October to their highest level in seven and a half years
and are expected to rise further in the coming year. A rise in rates may dissuade homeowners from moving.

And for households that are relocating, the rise in monthly mortgage payment relative to rent
may discourage home buying. Comparing the mortgage payment with rent not only affects the buy versus rent decision of households, but it can also indicate whether a local area is overvalued. Places, where the mortgage payment is much higher than its historical relationship with rent, could see not
only a falloff in home buyer activity but also a dip in sales prices.
The house-price bubble from 2004 to 2006 is an example of when the mortgage payment increased well above single-family rent and then fell sharply after 2007 as home prices declined. Using CoreLogic’s sales price data and Single-Family Rent Index, we traced the boom-and-bust pattern for
several metros. Los Angeles and Washington, DC are metros that had a doubling in the mortgage payment-to-rent ratio between 2001 and 2006, with a subsequent crash. In contrast, this ratio remained more stable in the Houston area. (Figure 1) By comparing the payment-to-rent ratio in
2018 with its value in 2001, we can determine whether the buy-versus-rent decision has
become more or less favorable for home buyers. We can also see which metros may be at greater risk of a home-price correction. We found several metros that have a mortgage payment-to-rent ratios that were more than 10 percent higher than in 2001. Other Metros had payment-to-rent ratios that were close to or less than what they were in 2001. Metro areas with high payment-to-rent ratios are
more likely to see slowing sales and less price growth. (Figure 2) If mortgage rates move higher in coming months, as expected, then metros that have affordably priced relative to
rental will likely continue to have steady or increasing sales, whereas markets, where mortgage payments are high relative to rents, are at greater risk of experiencing cooler home sales and lower sales prices.
Dr. Frank Nothaft
Executive, Chief Economist,
Office of the Chief Economist
Frank Nothaft holds the title executive, chief economist for CoreLogic. He leads the Office of
the Chief Economist and is responsible for analysis, commentary and forecasting trends in global real

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price

 

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through September 2018 with Forecasts from October 2018 including live maps.

CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a thirty-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. Check out the site below for a Full report

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends

September 2018 National Home Prices

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.6 percent in September 2018 compared with September 2017 and increased month over month by 0.4 percent in September 2018 compared with August 2018 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

 

Forecast Prices Nationally

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2018 to September 2019, and on month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease slightly by 0.6 from September 2018 to October 2018.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

In 2018, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive consumer housing sentiment study, combining consumer and property insights. The study assessed attitudes toward homeownership and the drivers of the home buying or renting decision process. When asked about the desire to own a home, potential buyers in the younger millennial demographic have the desire to buy, 40 percent are extremely or very interested in homeownership. In fact, 64 percent say they regularly monitor home values in their local market. However, while, 80 percent of younger millennials plan to move in the next four or five years, 73 percent cite as a barrier to homeownership (far higher than any other age cohort).

House Buyers are gaining the most power in Orlando

By   – Editor, Business Journal

After years of competitive house bidding wars and rising prices, a new data analysis from Zillow shows it might finally be a good time to buy a home in many U.S. markets — especially in Orlando.

Zillow researchers looked at three factors to determine which of the largest housing markets are becoming more buyer-friendly: an increase in the share f listings with a price cut; projected increase in rent appreciation over the next year; and relative to the past.

Based on those factors, the best places for buyers this winter include:

  1. Orlando
  2. Boston
  3. Seattle
  4. Las Vegas
  5. Charlotte
  6. Columbus
  7. Portland
  8. Sacramento
  9. Minneapolis
  10. Dallas

Here in Orlando, there are 6.8 percent more listings with a price cut compared to last year, rent is projected to increase 1.4 percent in the next year, and it costs about 20.2 percent of the monthly median income to pay the mortgage on the typical home.

Zumper National Rent Report: November 2018

As we approach the slow moving season, many of the 100 cities on our report have started to experience downward monthly rent trends. However, a lot of the mid to lower tiered markets are still continuing to play catch up with the most expensive cities with large year over year rental growth rates even into these cooler months. In the top markets, the most expensive 10 cities remained the same last month, though there was some shifting at the bottom with San Diego moving up to become tied with Santa Ana and Seattle dropping to 10th. Meanwhile, the city with the fastest growing rent last month was Spokane, up 5.6%, and the rental market that took the biggest rent dip was San Antonio, down 5.4%.

Overall, both the national one and two bedroom rents grew 0.7% last month, settling at $1,203 and $1,432, respectively. On a year over year level, one bedroom rent is up 2.3%, while two bedrooms have increased 2.9%.

The Zumper National Rent Report analyses rental data from over 1 million active listings across the United States. Data is aggregated on a monthly basis to calculate median asking for the top 100 metro areas by population, providing a comprehensive view of the current state of the market. The report is based on all data available in the month prior to publication.

If you’re interested in a more in-depth explanation of how and why we calculate our rent data, view our methodology post.

To keep up to date with rent changes across the country, like or follow Zumper on FacebookTwitter, and Instagram. In the market for a new place? Search apartments for rent on Zumper.

New office space slated for Lake Nona Town Center

By Jack Witthaus  – Staff Writer, Journal

The Orlando-based developer, Tavistock Development Co. is planning for a new 120,000-square-foot office building in the Lake Nona Town Center. It’s the third office project in the $780 million, 3.8 million-square-foot, mixed-use town center that is developing in partnership with Columbus, Ohio-based Steiner + Associates.

is expected to begin before the end of the year.

“Leasing for the building is going very well,” Senior Sales and Leasing Associate Ginger Vetter said in a statement about the second building, which has yet to open. “We expect to announce another regional headquarters and other tenants soon. With the momentum from this building, we’re moving forward with another new, Class A office building.”

The third building’s general contractor is Barton Malow Co., and the architect is a partnership between Gensler and HuntonBrady Architects. Tavistock spokesperson Karlee Kunkle declined to say whether or not a tenant had been signed for the third building or what percentage of the second building has been leased.

The third building’s revelation comes after the second building — an estimated $20 million, Class A 155,000-square-foot, six-story office building at the southwest corner of Veteran’s Way and Boulevard — topped out in March. The second building, called Town Center Office II, is part of the town center’s $300 million Phase 2A. The building was slated to be completed by the end of this year.

So far, BBA Aviation Plc., parent company to Signature Flight Support in Orlando, has signed a 65,000-square-foot lease inside Town Center Office II.

It’s no surprise that there’s interest in the airport/Lake Nona office submarket as average Class A office rents are $30.18 per square foot — the highest in Central and ahead of Orlando’s average of $25.93 per square foot, Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) reported. Part of the demand for office space might have to do with Lake Nona’s growing Medical City, which could be spurring other businesses to relocate to the area to serve that new employment base, said Nicole Barry, vice president and director of operations at Tower Realty Partners Inc.

Meanwhile, construction continues on the second phase of Lake Nona Town CenterOrlando Business Journal previously learned about three dozen major retailers — from American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) to Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) — are lining up for a spot inside the town center. Tavistock wouldn’t confirm any of the potential retailers as tenants, but the company recently announced that Dallas-based cinema Cinepolis USA will open a nine-screen, 40,000-square-foot cinema in 2020 in the town center.

The fast-growing community in southeast Orlando boasts more than 11,000 residents, 5,000 employees and 14,000-plus students at its schools.

Tavistock buys 1,000-plus acres airport land

is expanding its boundaries south of and it now owns the land it needs.

Lake Nona developer Tavistock Development Co. LLC’s related entity TDCP LLC spent $63.9 million, or roughly $55,700 per acre, on May 10 for nearly 1,147 acres south of Orlando International Airport from the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority and the city of Orlando, Orange County records showed.

The three different parcels, two in Orange County and one in Osceola County along Narcoossee and Boggy Creek roads, will be used by  to develop a portion of a mixed-use project west of Narcoossee Road, north and east of Boggy Creek Road near the Orlando VA Medical Center, Tavistock spokeswoman Jessi Blakley told Orlando Journal.

The project, known as the Poitras planned development, includes:

  • 2,973
  • 100,000 square feet of commercial use
  • A school on 25 acres

Tavistock previously sought approval from the city earlier this month to rezone the property as a planned development with aircraft noise.

The 11,000-acre Lake Nona already has billions of dollars worth of underway and there’s even more growth ahead.

Supply of Homes For Sale Up Year Over Year in July 2018

Nation’s Months’ Supply of Homes For Sale Up Year Over Year in July 2018

SAN FRANCISCO METRO AREA HAD THE LOWEST MONTHS’ SUPPLY IN JULY

BY SHU CHEN HOUSING , REAL ESTATE


U.S. home prices have risen year-over-year by more than 6 percent since August 2017, fueled by strong demand and a lack of supply in many markets. However, due to rising mortgage interest rates and slowing sales nationally, the number of increased slightly to a 3.2 months’ supply[1] in July 2018, up from 3.1 months in July 2017.

Months Supply By Price Tier

Figure 1 breaks out the months’ supply into four price tiers: low price (0-75 percent of median list price), low to middle price (75-100 percent of median list price), middle to moderate price (100-125 percent of median list price) and high price (125 percent or more of median list price). Usually, the high price tier has the largest months’ supply and the low to middle price tier has the lowest months’ supply. The differences in the months’ supply among the four price tiers were greatest during the 2007-2009 crisis period when the high-price tier peaked at 20.2 months and the other tiers remained less than 15 months.

Here’s how each price tier’s months’ supply in July 2018 compares with its recent history:

  • The low-price tier had a 3.2-month supply, which was down 0.2 months from July 2017, and was less than a quarter of its peak at January 2008.
  • The low- to middle-price tier had a 2.5-month supply, down 0.1 months from July 2017. The July supply was about 18 percent of its January 2009 peak.
  • The middle- to moderate-price tier had a 2.7-month supply, up 0.2 months from July 2017. The July supply was also about 18 percent of its January 2009 peak.
  • The high-price tier had a 4-month supply, down 0.2 months from July 2017. The July supply was 20 percent of its January 2009 peak.

Sold in 30 Days

With demand strong and supply tight, many homes don’t spend long on the market in 2018. Figure 2 shows that over the past four years the share of homes selling within 30 days of the initial list date[2] has been at historical highs. In July 2018, the share selling within 30 days was 25.4 percent, which was almost double the pre-crisis peak in 2005 and more than triple the level during the February 2008 trough. Figure 3 shows the share of the for-sale inventory that was on the market for more than 180 days. In July 2018, that share was 19.9 percent, about 2.2 percentage points lower than the average in 2017 and half of the peak in March 2009.

Inventory on Market 180 Days

Figure 4 shows the months’ supplies in the U.S. (based on data for 65 CBSAs) and selected CBSAs in July 2018 and July 2017. The months’ supply in West Palm Beach and Honolulu increased 1.2 and 1.9 months, respectively, in July 2018 compared to a year earlier. San Francisco and Seattle had the lowest months’ supplies in July 2018: 2.0 months and 2.4 months, respectively.  Philadelphia showed the largest decline – 0.9 months – in July 2018 compared with a year earlier.

US and CBSA Month Supply

[1] The month’s supply is calculated as the ratio of the for-sale inventory at the end of the month to the number of homes sold during the same month and represents the number of months it would take to sell the inventory at that month’s sales pace. The U.S. statistics are based on data for 65 CBSAs.  To determine the price tier, the median list price was the median of homes listed in the 65 CBSAs for the given month.

Price Pressure Fueled by Limited Supply

 

 

 

CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) has exceeded the pre-crisis peak and continues to grow with a strong and steady pace. With demand strong and inventory thin, the share of selling for the list price or more has also returned to pre-bust levels.

Share of SalesWith demand outweighing supply, homes are more likely to sell above the asking price. Figure 1 shows the share of homes that sold at a price above, equal to or below the list price. [1] The share of homes selling at or above list price has returned to mid-2005 levels. In Q2 2018 that share represented more than 40 percent of total sales – almost triple the level during the trough in January 2008. The share of homes selling for less than list price has made up the majority of sales over the past 10 years. Regardless of market conditions, there are always highly motivated sellers – including those who begin with unrealistic expectations – willing to drop their price.

Share of Sales

Housing markets are different across the nation. Therefore, sales and listing patterns also vary geographically. Figure 2 shows the share of homes that sold at, above, or below their list prices in 20 CBSAs during July 2018. San Francisco had the largest share of homes – 81 percent – that sold for at least the list price. Seattle and Minneapolis followed with 65 and 58 percent selling for the list price or more, respectively. Houston and Miami had the lowest share – 27 and 20 percent – of homes selling at or above the list price in July 2018. San Francisco was one of the metros with the highest home price growth in the U.S. in July. According to the CoreLogic HPI, home prices in San Francisco increased 11 percent year over year in July. On the other hand, Miami had a moderate annual home price increase of 4.6 percent in July.

Months Supply vs Service Premium

Price pressures rapidly increase as supply drops below 3 months. Figure 3 shows the price premium or discount and months’ supply for over 200 CBSAs in July 2018. In San Francisco and San Jose, where months’ supply was at 2 and 2.2, respectively, home buyers had to pay 9.7 and 5.4 percent more than the asking price on average. On the other hand, markets like Miami and Naples, where months’ supply are sufficient at 10 and 12, home buyers were able to negotiate below asking prices, with average discounts of 6.5 and 7.5 percent, respectively, in July 2018.

Note: The U.S. statistics are based on data for 65 CBSAs. Each of these CBSAs has at least 50 percent coverage since 2000. CoreLogic MLS data coverage usually increases over time, which might also contribute to inventory increases.

[1] Figures 1 and 2 use 65 CBSAs to aggregate national level statistics. The inventory has not been adjusted for growth in the number of households over time. As the number of households increases over time, the ‘equivalent’ level of inventory should rise as well.

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