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In sign of real-estate slowdown, Orlando home sales are down and listings are up

’s red-hot real estate market may be cooling off. The November real estate report from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association released Monday shows home sales are down and the supply of houses on the market is up as interest raise continue to increase.

Home sales fell 6.9 percent during the month to 2,575 while the number of grew to a 3.3-month supply, the biggest inventory since September 2017.

Real estate agents and analysts say increasing interest rates are giving buyers pause. The average interest rate for area homebuyers in November increased to 4.97 percent, up from 3.97 percent during the same month last year.

“There has been a shock in how quickly interest rates have gone up,” said Eric Soto, a real estate and co-owner of TC Orlando Homes based in Altamonte Springs.

It mirrors trends nationally, where both sales and price growth is slowing, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The number of U.S. homes sold in October dropped 8.9 percent compared with a year ago, the agency’s most recent report said.

In Metro Orlando in November, the average price of a single-family home in the area increased to $251,000, up $1,100 from the month before. Rising average prices combined with slower sales are usually an indication of a decrease in sales of less-expensive homes.

But though there are more homes available, it’s still far from a buyers market, Soto said.

“There may be more homes than there were a few months ago but only a few hundred,” he said.

Several times in the past 18 months, the Federal Reserve has raised the key lending rate that helps determine the rate on 30-year fixed mortgages. Only recently have those policymakers indicated that they may hold off on more hikes.

economist Jeff Tucker said home supply is up in many markets across the country. But he, too, wouldn’t call it a huge increase.

“This is certainly not looking like an inventory spike,” he said. “It’s just coming up from really low levels.”ADVERTISING

A five- or six- month supply of homes is a good equilibrium between buyers and sellers, Tucker said. Even at a 3.3-month supply, sellers still have control over the market, he said.

“It’s a bit of a breather for buyers, though,” Tucker said. “But there is a downside with interest rates rising.”

A year after Hurricane Irma, home sales are improving — if you can find a house

Tucker said rising interest rates may delay buyers from making purchases but doesn’t stop them completely.

What it may impact is affordability. Buyers can expect to pay about $148 more per month on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with interest rates increasing from 3.97 to 4.97 percent, according to Bankrate.

Alex Vastardis, a Dr. Phillips area real estate agent with Coldwell Banker, said there was a slowdown in November, particularly for homes for less than $300,000. However, homes in Windermere, Dr. Phillips and Winter Garden are still in high demand. New homes are still selling well too, he said.

But since real estate decisions are often dictated by other factors such as new jobs or relocations, Vastardis said he still has a lot of customers coming into his office looking for new homes.

“December is usually a pretty positive month because people want to sell their homes or get into a new one before the end of the year,” Vastardis said.

November Home Market Statistics

By Cindy Barth  – Editor, Orlando Business Journal Dec 17, 2018, 11:13am EST

Home sales nationwide fell in November at the fastest rate in two years while the number of listed increased at the fastest rate in three years,

The latest housing report from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association is a bit of good news/not so good news for the region as far as activity that took place in November.

First, the good news: The inventory of homes available for purchase in the Orlando area has experienced its first year-over-year increase since July 2015, with the overall inventory in November 1.7% higher than November 2017. In addition, the overall median price of Orlando homes sold in November is $233,100, 3.6% above the November 2017 median price of $224,995 and 1.8% above the October 2018 median price of $229,000.

“The tide has turned. Sellers are now competing for buyers, but they haven’t all realized it yet,”  Broker with Keller Williams Realty 

The bad news: Sales of single-family homes — 1,978 — in November decreased by 8.9% compared to November 2017, ORRA said.

“This slight rise in inventory can be attributed to a combination of both slowing sales and a bump in new listings, which increased by 4.5% compared to this same time last year,” said ORRA President Lou Nimkoff. “Factor in expected increases in interest rates that traditionally dampen sales, and we anticipate prospective homebuyers enjoying bolstered inventory levels throughout the upcoming year.”

Current inventory combined with the current pace of sales created a 3.3-month supply of homes in Orlando for November.

Tavistock to start construction on its 24,000-acre Sunbridge

Tavistock Sunbridge

  Development Co. LLC has beefed up plans for a portion of its 24,000-acre, cross-county Sunbridge development.

Tavistock may start as early as February on the 2,700-acre Osceola County piece of its future development that crosses the line into Orange County, a spokeswoman told Orlando Journal. The developer is seeking approvals from Osceola County on an updated development plan for that portion of a total of 19,560 acres in future development after winning approvals for a different plan in July 2017.

The current requests before the Osceola County development review committee are for:

  • 3,198 single-family
  • 1,434 apartments
  • 2.5 million square feet of office space
  • 180,430 square feet of civic space
  • 450 hotel rooms
  • Two schools

The county’s development review committee will make a recommendation on the proposal at a Dec. 5 meeting. Approvals typically take months or years as plans can be stalled, delayed or changed for various reasons.

The Osceola County property is south of the Orange County line, east of Narcoossee Road, west of the Econlockhatchee Swamp Preservation Area and north of Nova Road. Homestead, Penn.-based GAI Consultants Inc. is the master planner.

Master infrastructure construction was expected to start sometime in 2018, Richard Levey, managing director of Levey Consulting, which was representing Tavistock Development on approvals for the development, previously told OBJ. Levey couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

Meanwhile, construction on Sunbridge, one of the largest developments acreage-wise in Central , is expected to continue through 2055. Orange County’s 5,000-acre portion of Sunbridge is slated to include more than 7,300 homes, 490 hotel rooms, 6.3 million square feet of office and retail space, and 2.9 million square feet of industrial space.

The land is owned by entities related to The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to Osceola County documents.

For developments such as Sunbridge to find success, they require enormous amounts of capital and time to create a sense of place to attract residents, said local land expert Trevor Hall Jr., who isn’t involved in the project. Developers need to build medical, education, industrial and office buildings to serve future residents. “Whatever employment you can generate then feeds absorption of the housing projects.”

Sunbridge is expected to create big business and job opportunities similar to Tavistock’s in southeast Orlando. The 17-square-mile Lake Nona boasts more than 11,000 residents, 5,000 employees in the 650-acre biotech hub, and 14,000-plus students at its schools.

End of year Housing Report

 

 

Trends in Real Estate

Check out this Report for full details:

https://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/marketpulse/17-mktplse-1118-00-the-marketpulse-vol-7-issue-11-november-2018-screen-112718.pdf

 

 

U.S. Economic Outlook: November 2018
Payment-to-rent affects tenure choice and presages future home price growth By Frank E. Nothaft
Mortgage rates rose in October to their highest level in seven and a half years
and are expected to rise further in the coming year. A rise in rates may dissuade homeowners from moving.

And for households that are relocating, the rise in monthly mortgage payment relative to rent
may discourage home buying. Comparing the mortgage payment with rent not only affects the buy versus rent decision of households, but it can also indicate whether a local area is overvalued. Places, where the mortgage payment is much higher than its historical relationship with rent, could see not
only a falloff in home buyer activity but also a dip in sales prices.
The house-price bubble from 2004 to 2006 is an example of when the mortgage payment increased well above single-family rent and then fell sharply after 2007 as home prices declined. Using CoreLogic’s sales price data and Single-Family Rent Index, we traced the boom-and-bust pattern for
several metros. Los Angeles and Washington, DC are metros that had a doubling in the mortgage payment-to-rent ratio between 2001 and 2006, with a subsequent crash. In contrast, this ratio remained more stable in the Houston area. (Figure 1) By comparing the payment-to-rent ratio in
2018 with its value in 2001, we can determine whether the buy-versus-rent decision has
become more or less favorable for home buyers. We can also see which metros may be at greater risk of a home-price correction. We found several metros that have a mortgage payment-to-rent ratios that were more than 10 percent higher than in 2001. Other Metros had payment-to-rent ratios that were close to or less than what they were in 2001. Metro areas with high payment-to-rent ratios are
more likely to see slowing sales and less price growth. (Figure 2) If mortgage rates move higher in coming months, as expected, then metros that have affordably priced relative to
rental will likely continue to have steady or increasing sales, whereas markets, where mortgage payments are high relative to rents, are at greater risk of experiencing cooler home sales and lower sales prices.
Dr. Frank Nothaft
Executive, Chief Economist,
Office of the Chief Economist
Frank Nothaft holds the title executive, chief economist for CoreLogic. He leads the Office of
the Chief Economist and is responsible for analysis, commentary and forecasting trends in global real

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price

 

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through September 2018 with Forecasts from October 2018 including live maps.

CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a thirty-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. Check out the site below for a Full report

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends

September 2018 National Home Prices

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.6 percent in September 2018 compared with September 2017 and increased month over month by 0.4 percent in September 2018 compared with August 2018 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

 

Forecast Prices Nationally

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2018 to September 2019, and on month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease slightly by 0.6 from September 2018 to October 2018.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

In 2018, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive consumer housing sentiment study, combining consumer and property insights. The study assessed attitudes toward homeownership and the drivers of the home buying or renting decision process. When asked about the desire to own a home, potential buyers in the younger millennial demographic have the desire to buy, 40 percent are extremely or very interested in homeownership. In fact, 64 percent say they regularly monitor home values in their local market. However, while, 80 percent of younger millennials plan to move in the next four or five years, 73 percent cite as a barrier to homeownership (far higher than any other age cohort).

Opportunity Zones but great Investment Yes!

It’s not quite lottery level buzz, but talk of the tax rewards and potential of Opportunity Zones has tax lawyers, developers, municipalities and business development pros clamoring for answers and angles.

Still, in its early stages, U.S. governors helped the Internal Revenue Service and U.S. Treasury define eligible census tracts as official zones in May and June. Initial draft regulations about the program provided a fair amount of broad specifics — until late on Oct. 19. That’s when the IRS delivered hotly anticipated detailed rules on Opportunity Zones in a 74-page report reflecting a long period of public comment.

Here’s why Opportunity Zones are getting a lot of attention.

If you have capital gains, the new bipartisan supported provision found in 2017’s tax reform means an individual or institution can park those capital gains into what is known as a Qualified Opportunity Fund. That fund is used only to create investment within the designated census tracts or group of tracts.

Notable Orlando zones include Carver Shores, Washington Shores, Rosemont, Mercy Drive, the Packing District (west of Orange Blossom Trail), West Colonial Drive, East Colonial Drive (GOAA properties), Parramore (south of Church Street), the SoDo area (west of Orange Avenue) and the northeast corner of Semoran Boulevard and Curry Ford Road.

If you leave those deferred gains in a fund for seven to 10 years, then you don’t pay the capital gains for that period. While real estate is the sweet spot, the program was initially developed as a job creator — so it also applies to gains on sales of businesses, too.

“Those gains are deferred, but on top of that, anything you earn in the Opportunity Zone is tax free,” said Mike Miedel, director at Pinellas Economic Development. “It’s a tremendous opportunity for people.”

Buchanan’s Opportunity Zone practice team of Lisa Starczewski and Bill Conaboy has been on a whirlwind tour, the lawyers said, reacting to high interest from clients of all types.

The new details Friday were heavily anticipated, Starczewski said, and it’s going to take some time digest and understand. “There are still a number of open questions,” she said. But in one big move, the government extended the period over which an investor can take advantage of the program’s 10-year gain exclusion to as late as the end of 2047.

“They also answered some simpler questions like, can a Qualified Opportunity Fund be an LLC?” Starczewski said. “Yes, they can, and that was the right answer; and while it was just a clarification, it was nice to know so people didn’t feel like they had to create a limited partnership or corporation.”

Ahead of the Friday regs, PCED’s Miedel said it remained unclear how much people can use the funds for housing or hotels. “I think we are pretty safe with our target industries. The problem is how much of that investment will get sucked away from our types of projects into other things that would be secondary industries.”

Starczewski’s bottom-line takeaway: The program continues to be pro-taxpayer.

“As a practitioner, I think it is helpful guidance and I think it is designed to be facilitative,” she told OBJ sister paper the Tampa Bay Business Journal on Saturday. “I am happy to see that because it gives me a platform where I can say to clients, the IRS and Treasury are trying to help make these transactions work.”

With some level of confidence, Opportunity Zone subject matter experts can now have an easier time predicting what the feds will do in the next set of regulations based on the approach they took in the first one.

Supply of Homes For Sale Up Year Over Year in July 2018

Nation’s Months’ Supply of Homes For Sale Up Year Over Year in July 2018

SAN FRANCISCO METRO AREA HAD THE LOWEST MONTHS’ SUPPLY IN JULY

BY SHU CHEN HOUSING , REAL ESTATE


U.S. home prices have risen year-over-year by more than 6 percent since August 2017, fueled by strong demand and a lack of supply in many markets. However, due to rising mortgage interest rates and slowing sales nationally, the number of increased slightly to a 3.2 months’ supply[1] in July 2018, up from 3.1 months in July 2017.

Months Supply By Price Tier

Figure 1 breaks out the months’ supply into four price tiers: low price (0-75 percent of median list price), low to middle price (75-100 percent of median list price), middle to moderate price (100-125 percent of median list price) and high price (125 percent or more of median list price). Usually, the high price tier has the largest months’ supply and the low to middle price tier has the lowest months’ supply. The differences in the months’ supply among the four price tiers were greatest during the 2007-2009 crisis period when the high-price tier peaked at 20.2 months and the other tiers remained less than 15 months.

Here’s how each price tier’s months’ supply in July 2018 compares with its recent history:

  • The low-price tier had a 3.2-month supply, which was down 0.2 months from July 2017, and was less than a quarter of its peak at January 2008.
  • The low- to middle-price tier had a 2.5-month supply, down 0.1 months from July 2017. The July supply was about 18 percent of its January 2009 peak.
  • The middle- to moderate-price tier had a 2.7-month supply, up 0.2 months from July 2017. The July supply was also about 18 percent of its January 2009 peak.
  • The high-price tier had a 4-month supply, down 0.2 months from July 2017. The July supply was 20 percent of its January 2009 peak.

Sold in 30 Days

With demand strong and supply tight, many homes don’t spend long on the market in 2018. Figure 2 shows that over the past four years the share of homes selling within 30 days of the initial list date[2] has been at historical highs. In July 2018, the share selling within 30 days was 25.4 percent, which was almost double the pre-crisis peak in 2005 and more than triple the level during the February 2008 trough. Figure 3 shows the share of the for-sale inventory that was on the market for more than 180 days. In July 2018, that share was 19.9 percent, about 2.2 percentage points lower than the average in 2017 and half of the peak in March 2009.

Inventory on Market 180 Days

Figure 4 shows the months’ supplies in the U.S. (based on data for 65 CBSAs) and selected CBSAs in July 2018 and July 2017. The months’ supply in West Palm Beach and Honolulu increased 1.2 and 1.9 months, respectively, in July 2018 compared to a year earlier. San Francisco and Seattle had the lowest months’ supplies in July 2018: 2.0 months and 2.4 months, respectively.  Philadelphia showed the largest decline – 0.9 months – in July 2018 compared with a year earlier.

US and CBSA Month Supply

[1] The month’s supply is calculated as the ratio of the for-sale inventory at the end of the month to the number of homes sold during the same month and represents the number of months it would take to sell the inventory at that month’s sales pace. The U.S. statistics are based on data for 65 CBSAs.  To determine the price tier, the median list price was the median of homes listed in the 65 CBSAs for the given month.

Earth Fare Grand Opening in Lake Nona

By   – Staff Writer, Journal
 Updated 

Earth Fare will open its first organic grocery store in the area at the end of this month.

The Fletcher, NC.-based chain will open its store Sept. 29 in the Shoppes at Nona Place at 13024 Narcoosee Road in . The 24,000-square-foot location will feature a juice bar as well as a prepared food section with a salad bar, hot foods bar, pizza station, sandwich counter and pre-packed meals.

“At Earth Fare, we are passionate about helping our shoppers make the connection between clean food and longer, healthier, happier lives,” Earth Fare President and CEO Frank Scorpiniti said in a prepared statement. “Since 1975, we’ve been proudly encouraging shoppers to make healthier food choices easy and enjoyable, and we take great pride in expanding our strong Florida presence to the Nona community.”

Earth Fare provides food on its shelves that are free of added hormones and other non-organic ingredients. It keeps a list of booted ingredients which are not allowed on its shelves .

The chain will hold its grand opening celebration Sept. 29 at 7 a.m. with a ribbon-cutting ceremony and a check presentation to Nemours Children’s Hospital. There will be a mystery gift card giveaway for the first 500 customers in line with values up to $1,000, along with other giveaways, free samples, and product demonstrations.

HOUSING INVENTORY: LOWEST IN DECADES

 

 

 

 

 

 

Resale inventory is at the lowest level in more than 18 years and continues to decrease. New home construction hasn’t kept pace with demand, and the result is an inventory shortage at a time when demographic and economic indicators are moving upward for the .

One way to measure for-sale housing inventory is with “months’ supply,” which shows how many months it would take to sell the available inventory at the current sales pace, as if no other came on the market, which is unlikely but it is a good snapshot to measure health.

Month's Supply Lowest In More Than 18 Years

The housing market is seasonal, so when comparing the data over time we look at these numbers for the same month of each year. In March 2018, the months’ supply was approximately 3.8 months measured across the country, which means it would take only 3.8 months to sell all the existing houses listed at the March 2018 sales pace.  The March 2018 supply was about the same level as in March 2017, but well below where it was during the Great Recession, and tighter than it was before the housing boom. By this measure, inventory is the tightest it’s been in over 18 years.

Inventory Tight for Entry-Level Buyers

When we dig deeper into inventory at different price levels we see that inventory for entry-level homes is even tighter. Using the median price as the reference, we look at months’ supply for homes listed at different price points, for those homes listed at the entry-level (priced from 50 percent of median sale price up to 25 percent above) there was only a 3-month supply available for sale. There is more supply at higher price points – close to 7 months for homes listed for more than twice the median sale price.

Areas of the country with strong job growth have even lower supply. Denver, Seattle, and San Francisco have about 2 months of supply, making each of those cities a sellers’ market. Miami, with a supply made up mostly of condos, has the highest supply of the largest metros at 9 months.

Month's Supply in Large Metro Areas

The incredibly tight inventory on the low end has pushed prices up for that segment of the market. As measured by the CoreLogic Home Price Index, prices for lower-end homes increased by almost 10 percent year over year in March 2018, while prices for higher-priced homes increased by 6 percent. Increases for lower-end homes can price entry-level buyers out of the housing market, keeping a lid on overall home sales.

© 2018 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

 

 

 

Resale inventory is at the lowest level in more than 18 years and continues to decrease. New home construction hasn’t kept pace with demand, and the result is an inventory shortage at a time when demographic and economic indicators are moving upward for the housing market.

One way to measure for-sale housing inventory is with “months’ supply,” which shows how many months it would take to sell the available inventory at the current sales pace, as if no other homes came on the market, which is unlikely but it is a good snapshot to measure health.

Month's Supply Lowest In More Than 18 Years

The housing market is seasonal, so when comparing the data over time we look at these numbers for the same month of each year. In March 2018, the months’ supply was approximately 3.8 months measured across the country, which means it would take only 3.8 months to sell all the existing houses listed for sale at the March 2018 sales pace.  The March 2018 supply was about the same level as in March 2017, but well below where it was during the Great Recession, and tighter than it was before the housing boom. By this measure, inventory is the tightest it’s been in over 18 years.

Inventory Tight for Entry-Level Buyers

When we dig deeper into inventory at different price levels we see that inventory for entry-level homes is even tighter. Using the median price as the reference, we look at months’ supply for homes listed at different price points, for those homes listed at the entry-level (priced from 50 percent of median sale price up to 25 percent above) there was only a 3-month supply available for sale. There is more supply at higher price points – close to 7 months for homes listed for more than twice the median sale price.

Areas of the country with strong job growth have even lower supply. Denver, Seattle, and San Francisco have about 2 months of supply, making each of those cities a sellers’ market. Miami, with a supply made up mostly of condos, has the highest supply of the largest metros at 9 months.

Month's Supply in Large Metro Areas

The incredibly tight inventory on the low end has pushed prices up for that segment of the market. As measured by the CoreLogic Home Price Index, prices for lower-end homes increased by almost 10 percent year over year in March 2018, while prices for higher-priced homes increased by 6 percent. Increases for lower-end homes can price entry-level buyers out of the housing market, keeping a lid on overall home sales.

© 2018 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

A Record-breaking Month for the Housing Market

April was a quick selling month for the , according to Redfin. sold faster during the month than any other month Redfin has recorded since 2010, with homes staying on the market for just 36 days on average. This is six days faster than April of 2017. Homes were more expensive as well, with the national home sale price crossing the $300,000-mark for the first time in Redfin’s history. The median national home price was $302,000.

“Despite rising prices and low inventory, sales in 2018 so far are slightly higher than last year, which was the best year on record since the 2006 housing boom,” said Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson. “As we enter peak homebuying season, new listings will be key in maintaining sales growth and moderating the rapid price increases we’ve seen this year.”

In April the market gained a 5.7 percent month-over-month increase in newly listed homes , a welcome relief in a month that saw a 9.2 percent year-over-year decrease in available homes. Of all the homes for sale in April, 26.2 percent sold for above their list price, a year-over-year increase from April 2017’s 24.9 percent.

Redfin also notes that only 2.8 months of supply remained at the end of April, while six months of supply is the signal of a healthy market. Tough competition due to the limited supply has raised prices in every large metro; no metro area with a population of 750,000 or more saw any decline in prices in April.

 

 

According to Redfin, Michigan metros were the most competitive and fastest growing in the nation. Detroit experienced a 21.2 percent year-over-year price increase, the second highest in the nation behind San Jose, followed by Grand Rapids, where homes spent on average just nine days on the market.

“Detroit and Grand Rapids are no different than other cities dealing with low inventory. In addition, buyers are pouring in from the east coast, west coast, and Chicago, which is adding to the demand,” said Kent Selders, a Redfin Market Manager in Michigan.

See how inventory shortages and price increases are impacting other metros here.