Posts

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price

 

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through September 2018 with Forecasts from October 2018 including live maps.

CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a thirty-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. Check out the site below for a Full report

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends

September 2018 National Home Prices

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.6 percent in September 2018 compared with September 2017 and increased month over month by 0.4 percent in September 2018 compared with August 2018 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

 

Forecast Prices Nationally

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2018 to September 2019, and on month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease slightly by 0.6 from September 2018 to October 2018.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

In 2018, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive consumer housing sentiment study, combining consumer and property insights. The study assessed attitudes toward homeownership and the drivers of the home buying or renting decision process. When asked about the desire to own a home, potential buyers in the younger millennial demographic have the desire to buy, 40 percent are extremely or very interested in homeownership. In fact, 64 percent say they regularly monitor home values in their local market. However, while, 80 percent of younger millennials plan to move in the next four or five years, 73 percent cite as a barrier to homeownership (far higher than any other age cohort).

Price Pressure Fueled by Limited Supply

 

 

 

CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) has exceeded the pre-crisis peak and continues to grow with a strong and steady pace. With demand strong and inventory thin, the share of selling for the list price or more has also returned to pre-bust levels.

Share of SalesWith demand outweighing supply, homes are more likely to sell above the asking price. Figure 1 shows the share of homes that sold at a price above, equal to or below the list price. [1] The share of homes selling at or above list price has returned to mid-2005 levels. In Q2 2018 that share represented more than 40 percent of total sales – almost triple the level during the trough in January 2008. The share of homes selling for less than list price has made up the majority of sales over the past 10 years. Regardless of market conditions, there are always highly motivated sellers – including those who begin with unrealistic expectations – willing to drop their price.

Share of Sales

Housing markets are different across the nation. Therefore, sales and listing patterns also vary geographically. Figure 2 shows the share of homes that sold at, above, or below their list prices in 20 CBSAs during July 2018. San Francisco had the largest share of homes – 81 percent – that sold for at least the list price. Seattle and Minneapolis followed with 65 and 58 percent selling for the list price or more, respectively. Houston and Miami had the lowest share – 27 and 20 percent – of homes selling at or above the list price in July 2018. San Francisco was one of the metros with the highest home price growth in the U.S. in July. According to the CoreLogic HPI, home prices in San Francisco increased 11 percent year over year in July. On the other hand, Miami had a moderate annual home price increase of 4.6 percent in July.

Months Supply vs Service Premium

Price pressures rapidly increase as supply drops below 3 months. Figure 3 shows the price premium or discount and months’ supply for over 200 CBSAs in July 2018. In San Francisco and San Jose, where months’ supply was at 2 and 2.2, respectively, home buyers had to pay 9.7 and 5.4 percent more than the asking price on average. On the other hand, markets like Miami and Naples, where months’ supply are sufficient at 10 and 12, home buyers were able to negotiate below asking prices, with average discounts of 6.5 and 7.5 percent, respectively, in July 2018.

Note: The U.S. statistics are based on data for 65 CBSAs. Each of these CBSAs has at least 50 percent coverage since 2000. CoreLogic MLS data coverage usually increases over time, which might also contribute to inventory increases.

[1] Figures 1 and 2 use 65 CBSAs to aggregate national level statistics. The inventory has not been adjusted for growth in the number of households over time. As the number of households increases over time, the ‘equivalent’ level of inventory should rise as well.

© 2018 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

National Association of Realtors

Pending home sales slid in April to their third-lowest level over the past year according to the latest Pending Home Sales Index data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Thursday. The report indicated that the index declined 1.3 percent in April to 106.4 from an upwardly revised 107.8 in March. On a year over year basis, the index was down 2.1 percent and declined for the fourth straight month.

“Pending sales slipped in April and continued to stay within the same narrow range with little signs of breaking out,” said Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR. “Listings are typically going under contract in under a month and instances of multiple offers are increasingly common and pushing prices higher.”

Watch what Yun had to say about the other factors that impacted pending home sales and his take on the :

 

A Record-breaking Month for the Housing Market

April was a quick selling month for the , according to Redfin. sold faster during the month than any other month Redfin has recorded since 2010, with homes staying on the market for just 36 days on average. This is six days faster than April of 2017. Homes were more expensive as well, with the national home sale price crossing the $300,000-mark for the first time in Redfin’s history. The median national home price was $302,000.

“Despite rising prices and low inventory, sales in 2018 so far are slightly higher than last year, which was the best year on record since the 2006 housing boom,” said Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson. “As we enter peak homebuying season, new listings will be key in maintaining sales growth and moderating the rapid price increases we’ve seen this year.”

In April the market gained a 5.7 percent month-over-month increase in newly listed homes , a welcome relief in a month that saw a 9.2 percent year-over-year decrease in available homes. Of all the homes for sale in April, 26.2 percent sold for above their list price, a year-over-year increase from April 2017’s 24.9 percent.

Redfin also notes that only 2.8 months of supply remained at the end of April, while six months of supply is the signal of a healthy market. Tough competition due to the limited supply has raised prices in every large metro; no metro area with a population of 750,000 or more saw any decline in prices in April.

 

 

According to Redfin, Michigan metros were the most competitive and fastest growing in the nation. Detroit experienced a 21.2 percent year-over-year price increase, the second highest in the nation behind San Jose, followed by Grand Rapids, where homes spent on average just nine days on the market.

“Detroit and Grand Rapids are no different than other cities dealing with low inventory. In addition, buyers are pouring in from the east coast, west coast, and Chicago, which is adding to the demand,” said Kent Selders, a Redfin Market Manager in Michigan.

See how inventory shortages and price increases are impacting other metros here.

Existing Home Sales Grow, But Not Like 2017

 

Existing home sales saw an uptick in March growing 1.1 percent to 5.6 million from 5.54 million in February according to the latest existing-home sales data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Monday.

However, sales remained 1.2 percent below the same period last year as a shortage of inventory and constraints kept sales activity below the 2017-levels, the report indicated. The monthly existing-home sales data by NAR includes completed transactions for single-family , townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops.

According to the data, the median price of existing homes in March was $250,400 and marked an increase of 5.8 percent from $236,600 recorded in March 2017. The price increase in March 2018 marked the seventy-third consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.

“Although the strong job market and recent tax cuts are boosting the incomes of many households, speedy price growth is squeezing overall affordability in several markets—especially those out West,” said Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR.

A shortage of supply of existing homes is another factor that has kept home sales below the year-ago level according to Yun. “Robust gains last month in the Northeast and Midwest – a reversal from the weather-impacted declines seen in February – helped overall sales activity rise to its strongest pace since last November at 5.72 million,” he said. “The unwelcoming news is that while the healthy is generating sustained interest in buying a home this spring, sales are lagging year-ago levels because supply is woefully low and home prices keep climbing above what some would-be buyers can afford.”

By the end of March, total housing inventory climbed 5.7 percent to 1.67 million existing homes available but was still 7.2 percent lower than the same period a year ago, NAR’s data indicated. Inventory has fallen year-over-year for 34 consecutive months now and unsold inventory is at a 3.6 month supply at the current sales pace.

Shortage of inventory has also led to stiff competition as buyer demand continues to grow, NAR said. According to the report, properties stayed on the market for 30 days in March, down from 37 days in February and 34 days last year. In fact, the report said, 50 percent of homes sold in March were on the market for less than a month.

Yun pointed out that real estate agents were seeing the seasonal ramp-up in buyer demand, but without the commensurate increase in new listings coming onto the market. “As a result, competition is swift and homes are going under contract in roughly a month, which is four days faster than last year and a remarkable 17 days faster than March 2016,” he said.

Developer preps site for apartments, shops near SunRail station

 

An 18.4-acre property adjacent the SunRail Sand Lake Road station is being readied for site work.

Landowner Sandlake Station Partners LLC, an affiliate of the Aventura-based Master Real Estate, is seeking Orange County approval to mass grade the property for a new development that would include a 38,000-square-foot commercial building and 196 apartments on vacant land at 7803 S. Orange Ave., according to the April 11 application. TRI3 Civil Engineering Design Studios Inc. is the applicant.

The mixed-use project, north of Sand Lake Road and on the east side of South Orange Avenue, is being marketed by MIR Developments as the Sandlake Station Condominiums and Sandlake Station Shops, Orlando Journal previously reported.

TRENDING

Central Florida neighborhoods where home values are surging

What Does The 2018 Housing Market Look Like?

Oftentimes, it’s difficult to predict the . In the last decade alone, we’ve seen a market crash and slow rebound.

However, while some experts are focused on yet another housing bubble, real estate has been on the rise. In October, sales of new U.S. single-family homes hit their highest level in 10 years across the country.

What’s the market forecast for next year? Industry insiders and top experts have similar predictions.

As a future or current homeowner, it’s important to stay on top of the changes in real estate. Read on to learn what the 2018 housing market has in store.

Inventory Shortages

New home sales may be on the rise, but the number of available is on the decline.

Low home inventory has made home prices more expensive in recent years. This trend will continue in 2018, making it more difficult for first-time and budget-focused buyers to enter the market.

There are 12 percent fewer homes on the market than there were a year ago. If this trend continues, homebuyers will be faced with stiffer competition and higher prices. This will make the demand for home purchase loans even greater.

What’s contributing to this low inventory? There are several theories.

Rising housing costs have added emphasis to high-end construction. More expensive homes are being built, which is making it more difficult to find affordable homes.

Homeowners might also be less likely to sell their homes than they were pre-crash. Despite it being a seller’s market, they aren’t looking to enter the market. They’d rather stay locked into their current mortgage.

Whatever the reason, the inventory shortage is expected to continue. Low inventory and high prices will force new homebuyers to get creative if they want to find an affordable home.

Housing Market Opportunities

Certain demographics have seen an abundance of housing opportunities. They can expect these opportunities to be even greater in 2018.

One such demographic is sellers of mid-priced single-family homes. These are some of the most in-demand homes across the nation.

Developers and sellers can make big money on this valuable sector of the market. More millennials are seeking to buy starter homes while baby boomers are scaling back.

The housing shortage isn’t all bad for buyers. Experts are predicting that housing prices will slow down in the coming year.

Forecasts show that the average U.S. house price growth will be 4.9 percent in 2018, which is lower than the 6.6 percent growth seen in the second quarter of 2017.

Prices might be curbed thanks to mortgage rates. A moderate increase in mortgage rates should help decrease refinancing activities.

You can still expect higher growth in big markets such as Seattle and San Francisco. Yet good mortgage rates, limited refinancing, and market stability will still help buyers in 2018.

Your Next Move

Predictions show low-inventory, high-prices, and market stability in 2018.

You don’t have to wait until these predictions come to fruition. Contact us now to learn more about buying your dream home. We offer free loan advice with no cost or obligation.

Lake Nona tees up opening of Drive Shack golf complex

Lake Nona’s newest sports-themed complex is getting ready to open its doors to the area’s golf fans.

New York-based global golf entertainment company Drive Shack Inc. (NYSE: DS) will debut its $20 million-$25 million golf-themed driving range and entertainment complex on Feb. 14, Sports Ventures Vice President Andy Odenbach told attendees at Orlando Journal’s Jan. 19 Business of Sports luncheon.

The new three-story, 57,000-square-foot sports center — the next piece of Lake Nona’s 300-acre Sports and Performance District — features a restaurant, lounge, bar, 90 hitting bays and meeting spaces on 15 acres at 7675 Blvd.

Drive Shack began hosting several hiring events in November to prep for its opening, as previously reported by OBJ. The complex still has positions available on its careers webpage, ranging from bay caddy to senior operations manager.

The new Drive Shack complex is expected to be a direct competitor to Dallas-based Topgolf, which last fall opened its three-level, 65,000-square-foot sports venue on Orlando’s International Drive tourist corridor.

How Will the New Tax Changes Affect You?

Tax Changes

The first change you need to be aware of is the requirements of the sale of your principal property. The second is the reduction of the limit on mortgage interest. The third is the elimination of state and local taxes.

Regarding the requirements of the sale of your principal property, the original proposal was that if the property was a homestead property, you would have to live in it for five out of the last eight years in order to avoid paying any capital gains taxes when selling it. That’s been changed so you only have to stay in the home for two out of the previous five years to sell the property without having to pay any capital gains taxes.

This change doesn’t impact you very much if you’re looking to sell your home. If you’re living in the property as part of a married couple, then you have up to $500,000 in gains that you don’t have to pay taxes on. If you’re single, you have up to $250,000 in gains that you don’t have to pay taxes on.

Regarding the reduction of the limit on mortgage interest, previously you could buy a home for up to $1 million and get the mortgage deduction when doing your taxes. They were proposing reducing that sum from $1 million to $500,000, but they agreed that you could reduce the itemized deduction on your mortgage for up to $750,000.

This change will only affect people who are buying homes in a higher price range—primarily those buying over the $750,000 range. However, if you’re buying a home for $1 million and you’re putting down 20% or more, it may not affect you that much. If you’re buying a home that’s more expensive than that, there will probably be tax implications.

Lastly, regarding the deduction of local and state taxes in relation to your property, the original law was to take that away completely so you weren’t allowed to claim that on your taxes. The new change allows you to do so for up to $10,000. Basically, if your taxes are more than that, it will have an effect on you whether you’re buying or selling.

If you have any other questions about these new tax rules and how they affect the real estate market, don’t hesitate to reach out to us. We’d be happy to help you.

How Much Is Your Home’s Collateral Value?

Traditional Appraisal and Automated Valuation Models Don’t Always See Eye to Eye.

Recently the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced plans to waive the requirement of a professional appraisal on qualified purchase loans with a loan-to-value ratio at or below 80 percent.  For Fannie Mae, the new waiver option extends the Property Inspection Waiver program which was initially only applicable to refinancing loans. Similarly for Freddie Mac, the move has expanded lenders’ option to use automated evaluation tools, in lieu of a traditional appraisal, on both purchase and refinancing loans when working with its Loan Advisor Suite.

The GSE announcements came amid reports of a shortage of state-certified and licensed appraisers, especially in rural areas.  Nonetheless, the announcement was not without controversy. The Appraisal Institute (AI), the country’s largest trade association of real estate appraisers, has raised safety and soundness concerns of eliminating the appraisal requirement and is seeking a legislative rollback as it regards “the requirement for the completion of full appraisals to determine the true equity position of individual properties” fundamental to prudent risk management for the mortgage finance sector.  Under the federal banking regulations for real estate transactions, automated appraisal methods are generally reserved as a due diligence tool rather than as the primary valuation.

From a market economics perspective, a clash between automated evaluations and traditional appraisal seems rather inevitable, as advanced analytics and big data technology have steadfastly pushed the boundaries of collateral evaluation capabilities. Today’s automated valuation alternatives are often powered by large databases that can capture information on a given property as well as transaction records in and around the property in consideration.

 What Title of figure 2 is

In mortgage underwriting and securitization, collateral risk is typically quantified by loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. For purchase loans, the LTV ratios at origination are valued at the lesser of purchase price and appraised value. Since traditional appraisals infrequently come in below purchase price – about 10 percent of the time among loan applications or less than 4 percent among funded loans – a loan’s collateral risk measure is typically unaffected by appraisal.

But that could change quickly using an automated valuation model (AVM). Here is a quick look at the difference between traditional appraisal and AVMs, with implications for origination LTV. This blog analyzed a sample of recently appraised single-family purchased with mortgage financing for which a CoreLogic AVM value was also available.  The sample consists of approximately 190,000 purchase-loan properties appraised between July 2016 and June 2017.

Figure 1 shows the distribution of the properties’ traditional appraisal value relative to their purchase price. A majority of the appraisals were either exactly at the contract price (31.6 percent) or slightly above it (58.6 percent), leaving about 10 percent of the properties appraised below the purchase price. With very few appraisals on the low end, the purchase price effectively determined origination LTV during loan underwriting.

Figure 2 shows the distribution of the AVM values relative to the purchase price: 45.4 percent of the AVM values were at or above the contract price, while 54.6 percent were below it. Compared with traditional appraisals, the AVM values were more symmetrically distributed about the purchase price but with thicker tails on both ends (that is, greater uncertainty in the valuation). For the 5-in-9 properties with an AVM value below the purchase price, the LTV ratios for these loans would be higher had the AVM valuations been used instead of a traditional appraisal.

Since the odds of an AVM coming in below the purchase price were 55-45 in this analysis, compared with 10-90 for traditional appraisals, AVM usage will increase the underwriting LTV on a much larger number of loans. And the ‘fatter tail’ of the distribution below the contract price means that the upward LTV adjustment will more often be larger than for a traditional appraisal.

While the industry may debate which valuation method is likely more accurate than the other, or more importantly, which is more useful than the other in predicting default risk and loan performance, there is one thing we can all agree on: Lenders and mortgage investors need reliable information about a loan’s and portfolio’s collateral risk to make informed underwriting and investment decisions.

[1] The property must be a single-family, primary residence or second home with a value less than $1 million; additional restrictions apply.

[2] See the Interagency Advisory on the Availability of Appraisers, issued by the federal banking regulators on May 31, 2017. https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2017/nr-ia-2017-60a.pdf

[3] The Appraisal Institute press release, “Appraisal Institute Joins 35 Groups Seeking to Halt Appraisal Waivers,” September 7, 2017.

[4] See the Interagency Appraisal and Evaluation Guidelines 2010, which was originally issued in 1994 by the FDIC, OCC, FBR, and OTC, in accordance with Title XI of the 1989 FIRREA.

[5] A recent study by researchers at Fannie Mae reported less than 4 percent of the purchase loans guaranteed by the agency during 1992-2015 had an appraisal below the purchase price. The study can be accessed at http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/datanotes/pdf/working-paper-102816.pdf

[6] The AVM valuation date (or, AVM “as of” date) did not fall exactly on the appraisal date, but ranged from 15 days to about 3 ½ months after the appraisal date.

[7] Because the data set did not include the buyers’ loan amount, analysis by LTV ratio could not be performed. It remains to be seen whether the distribution of AVM valuations or appraisal is affected by leverage. However, if the valuations are unbiased, we should not expect leverage to affect the valuation outcome.